The Seattle Mariners host the Cleveland Guardians on March 26, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SEAM.
The Mariners are favored by -180 on the moneyline and priced at +126 to cover the run-line (-1.5). The Guardians are +152 on the moneyline and -120 to cover the run line (+1.5). The total is set at 6.5 runs (-115o / -105u).
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction
- Guardians vs Mariners Pick: Mariners ML & Under 8.5 SGP (+115, bet365)
My Guardians vs Mariners best bet is on this same-game parlay. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Mariners Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | +152 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | -180 |
- Guardians vs Mariners spread: Mariners -1.5 (+126), Guardians +1.5 (-152)
- Guardians vs Mariners over/under: 6.5 (-115 / -105)
- Guardians vs Mariners moneyline: Guardians +152, Mariners -180
Guardians vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| Tanner Bibee (2025) | Stat | Logan Gilbert (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 12-11 | W-L | 6-6 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 4.24/3.62 | ERA /xERA | 3.44/3.08 |
| 4.34/4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 3.35/2.95 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.03 |
| 14.2 | K-BB% | 26.5 |
| 44.7 | Ground Ball % | 38.9 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 99 | Location+ | 103 |
Guardians vs Mariners Betting Preview
Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians outperformed expectations last season, posting an 88-74 record, capped by an incredible finish that saw them steal the AL Central crown from the Detroit Tigers.
Cleveland finished with a -6 run differential and an expected record of 80-82, and its perceived overachievement is one reason it features a betting total of just 78.5 wins entering the campaign.
The Guardians have announced their Opening Day roster, and most of the team's core remains intact. Potential rookie of the year candidate Chase DeLautner is the main addition, with the hype reaching a fever pitch after he crushed two home runs in the preseason finale on Monday.
Cleveland finished the 2025 campaign ranked 28th among MLB lineups with an 87 wRC+, and the Guards slugged just .373. Still, they posted a 0.37 BB/K ratio and manufactured runs with strong fundamental play. They also ranked 27th in wRC+ and 30th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching.
FanGraphs projects the Guardians to rank 24th in runs scored per game average, but there is potentially greater than average volatility in projecting Cleveland's lineup accurately, given the allotment of plate appearances expected to be awarded to four young bats who are not known products at this level.
Tanner Bibee had his worst season at the big league level in 2025, finishing with a 4.25 ERA, though his 3.64 xERA and Stuff+ rating of 104 were still encouraging. He allowed a career-high 1.33 HR/9 last season with a HR/FB Ratio of 13%, but should limit long-balls more effectively in a matchup at the league's most pitcher-friendly ballpark.
After altering his pitch mix, Bibee came on strong at the end of the 2025 campaign, posting a 2.12 ERA across his final five starts, with a 17.8% strikeout minus walk rate.
The Guardians' bullpen projects as a strength once again.
Seattle Mariners
Fresh off a run to the ALCS, the Mariners appear poised to be a legitimate contender in the American League.
Having lost no key pieces from their 2025 roster, Seattle looks to be a safe bet to return to the postseason, featuring a more well-balanced lineup than in years past and, on paper, the best pitching staff in the AL.
Seattle's team ERA is aided by the favorability of T-Mobile Park, which has been the most pitcher-friendly ballpark over the past two seasons (by a wide margin). The staff finished with a 3.28 ERA at home last season, compared to a mark of 4.50 on the road. Those splits applied notably to Gilbert, who posted a 2.28 ERA and 0.76 WHIP across 68 and 1/3 innings last season.
Gilbert posted an elite 32.3% strikeout rate last season and a 26.5% strikeout-minus-walk rate. He features a quality four-pitch mix led by an elite four-seamer.
Seattle's bullpen features four elite arms (Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier, Eduard Bazardo), and is expected to be a top-five unit in baseball once again after finishing with a 3.72 ERA in 2025.
Odds are Cal Raleigh will regress to some extent this season, and perhaps Seattle will not finish the year ranked third in offensive wRC+.
But the Mariners still have an excellent nucleus of proven batters in Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena. Seattle slugged .422 against righties in 2025 and will offer a tough test to Bibee in this matchup.
Guardians vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
Gilbert is considered the eighth favorite to win the AL Cy Young, as the 28-year-old remains in his true prime after finishing with an elite strikeout rate and strong strikeout-minus-walk rate last season.
Gilbert was exceptional at home last season, posting a 38.2% strikeout rate and a 2.12 xFIP.
Gilbert will be well supported by the Mariners' elite bullpen, which still features four high-quality, high-leverage options to help see games out.
Cleveland's lineup doesn't appear likely to be overly dominant, but the bullpen appears likely to remain solid, while Bibee should be capable of authoring a respectable outing.
This looks like a solid spot to target the Mariners winning a moderately low-scoring game with Gilbert on the mound.
Parlaying the Mariners to win the game featuring Under 8.5 runs prices out at +115, and that is my favorite way to bet this matchup.
Pick: Seattle Mariners ML & Under 8.5 SGP (+115, bet365)
