The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks on March 26, 2026. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Dodgers are favored by -245 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +200 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+190 or Better)
My Diamondbacks vs Dodgers best bet is on the Diamondbacks to win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 9 -105o / -115u | +200 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 9 -105o / -115u | -245 |
- Diamondbacks vs Dodgers spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-118), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-102)
- Diamondbacks vs Dodgers over/under: 9 (-105 / -115)
- Diamondbacks vs Dodgers moneyline: Diamondbacks +200, Dodgers -245
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Betting Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
Zac Gallen returns to the Diamondbacks on a one-year pillow contract that is virtually the same as the qualifying offer he rejected earlier in the offseason. This was necessitated by his career-worst 13.4% strikeout minus walk rate and 1.1 fWAR across 192 innings, which were the second most of his career.
However, there were some positive signs in his second-half numbers.
- April – June: 93.2 MPH average fastball, 10.9% K-BB
- July – September: 93.9 MPH, 16.2% K-BB
It’s not a return to the 9.4 fWAR he accumulated from 2022 to 2023, but it is in line with his 2.8 fWAR in 148 innings in 2024.
His first and second half performances were the difference between a pitcher you probably wouldn’t let start a postseason game and a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm.
If we expand beyond velocity and peripherals, we see that Gallen also threw fewer fastballs (42.5% vs 47.5%) and more changeups (18.1% vs 13.9%) in the second half, despite the increase in velocity. He posted improved Pitching+ scores (105 vs 90, 102 vs 95) and PitchingBot scores (58 vs 51, 56 vs 53) on both pitches in the second half as well.
The more tangible results were improvements in first-strike rate (67.9% vs 64.5%) and chase rate (30.7% vs 26.5%) — the obvious benefit of starting ahead in the count is more chases later on in the plate appearance.
Gallen was so confident in his changeup by the end of the season that he threw it 27.9% of the time over his last four starts (117 Pitching+, 63 PitchingBot, changeup grades that are very similar to his 2022 and 2023 scores).
Without putting too much stock in spring training stats, he walked just two of 49 batters with a 94.2 MPH average fastball velocity. It will probably decline, considering his previous career-high season was 94.1 MPH in 2022.
But, at the very least, it shows that Gallen knows he has something to prove in this repeat contract year.
The Dodger offense is the easiest part of this analysis.
They were great (125 wRC+ at home, 114 vs RHP last year), and they replaced Michael Conforto’s 83 wRC+ with Kyle Tucker’s 136. Mookie Betts (104 wRC+ in 2025) will probably be better in a healthier season. The only concern you could possibly have is that Freddie Freeman is now 36.
The Dodgers were near the top of the league against nearly all pitch types last season. But it’s a bit telling that when Gallen faced them on August 29th last season (one of only two starts against his division rivals, with the other in May), he threw 50% fastballs (a second-half game high) at 94.4 MPH (his second-hardest average velocity of the season).
He allowed just two hits over eight innings, striking out eight of 22 batters. Betts did struggle against curveballs last season, but it’s difficult to find anything that Gallen may throw to most of these Dodger hitters with a substantial edge.
FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Arizona bullpen for only 1.2 fWAR in 2026, third-worst in the majors, but with a 4.01 ERA (4.07 FIP) that’s exactly the same as the Dodger pen projection, though the home team does project for the fourth most bullpen fWAR (4.5). The Diamondbacks are projected for nearly 50 fewer relief innings.
Another problem at the start of the season will be Arizona's bullpen health, as AJ Puk and Justin Martinez remain injured.
Paul Sewald is expected to get the first shot at closing, but actually has the worst ERA and FIP projections of any Snakes' reliever projected for more than 50 innings. Sewald's velocity is up one MPH this spring from last season, which matches his 2024 velocity, but is also a tick lower than his prior three years.
Ginkel, Thompson, and Loaisiga are the only Arizona relievers among that group (of seven projected for 50-plus IP) projected with earned-run indicators under four.
The Diamondbacks should have one of the strongest defenses in the league on a daily basis (projected lineup +19 Fielding Runs via Statcast) and also one of the better base-running teams. Although Corbin Carroll’s 10 BaseRunning Runs in 2025 equals the entire total for the projected lineup, with Geraldo Perdomo (five) the only other projected batter above two.
While a thesis on the ABS challenge system is beyond the scope of this article, we should mention that Gabriel Moreno was a top-five framer last year. We can probably expect the spectrum to narrow on catcher framing this year, but not entirely disappear.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
I used to refer to Yoshinobu Yamamoto as Yoshi Yama because it was a difficult name to type, but now I simply call him the Juggernaut. If you’ve seen the old X-Men movies from about 25 years ago, you might understand why.
The Juggernaut was a powerhouse villain who started off slowly, gradually building up momentum until he couldn’t be stopped.
Yamamoto went no more than five innings in 10 of his 18 starts for the Dodgers in 2024, recording only 10 outs beyond the sixth inning all season long. In his first 16 starts of 2025, Yamamoto went beyond six innings three times, with seven outs recorded beyond the sixth inning.
Ironically, after his first start in July, Yamamoto became a workhorse, tossing at least 7 innings in half of his remaining 14 regular-season starts. His strikeout minus walk rate went from 19.7% before July to 22% in the second half.
His monstrous post-season included quality starts in four of five attempts, along with a season-saving relief effort in the World Series. Yamamoto pitched 37 1/3 innings with an 18.8% strikeout minus walk rate in October, perhaps even more impressive than his second-half numbers, considering the quality of the opposition.
Yamamoto threw just about everything except a slider and changeup at least 7.5% of the time last year (five pitches), with only his sinker (42) grading below 57 on the PitchingBot overall scale and no below-average pitches according to Pitching+ (110 for the entire arsenal overall).
If you have a concern about Yamamoto, it may be that he threw a combined 211 innings last year (not even counting spring training). However, he did clear 190 innings twice in Japan, both times in just 26 starts. With little interest in Yamamoto’s March numbers, he struck out 14 of 40 batters and threw 6 2/3 effective innings over two starts in the World Baseball Classic.
The Diamondbacks were thought to be ahead of schedule when they won the National League in 2023, Corbin Carroll’s first full season, but they’ve missed the playoffs and been in decline each of the last two seasons, trading off key pieces like Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez and losing both Corbin Burnes and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to devastating injuries.
The additions of Carlos Santana and Nolan Arenado on the corners may help the defensive numbers, but both had a sub-80 wRC+ against right-handed pitching last year. The projected lineup still averaged a 106 wRC+ against righties because of the five batters above 120 (Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, Corbin Corbin, Gabriel Moreno, Pavin Smith).
Using pitch run values, Carroll is the only projected Arizona bat who matches up positively against Yamamoto’s pitch mix with strong run values against each of his three most often thrown pitches (fastball, splitter, and curve). Guys like Moreno and Santana struggled significantly against that three-pitch mix.
We already touched on the Dodger bullpen projections above, but not the why of the situation.
If you remember how bad they were in the postseason (essentially the reason Yamamoto was maxed out), you’ll understand that the only three relievers who project above 0.3 fWAR this year weren’t available to them in October last year.
Edwin Diaz (1.7), Tanner Scott (1.1), and Alex Vesia (0.8) account for 3.6 of the Dodgers' 4.5 projected bullpen fWAR this year. They should all be rested and ready to go on Opening Day.
Arizona ranked 10th among MLB lineups with a 105 wRC+ against southpaws last season, and that may be a split where Arenado and Santana help. But I don’t think the Dodgers will shy away from the pair of lefties ahead of Diaz, considering alternatives.
Will Smith’s -10 Framing Runs was the worst in the National League last year. Dodger pitchers may stand to benefit from the new ABS system.
However, Teoscar Hernandez (-9 Fielding Run Value) was the worst Dodger fielder overall last year, and they can’t move him to DH for obvious reasons.
Andy Pages (+12) makes up for that somewhat, but this was still a below-average defensive unit when considering projected starters.
This is a positive base-running team, though not as good as the Diamondbacks, and with Shohei Ohtani representing the entirety of the +5 from the projected lineup. Everyone else was within two runs of neutral.
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Pick, Betting Analysis
Dodger Stadium is a slightly positive run environment (102 Statcast Park Run Factor), but also a top-five power environment for left-handed hitters (119 Home Run Factor) and the most power-friendly park in the league for right-handed hitters (135).
There’s not much variance in the weather in Los Angeles. Winds generally blowing out play a part in the power-friendly environment.
Both starters threw just under 70 pitches in their final tune-up on Friday (Gallen 66, Yamamoto 68). Assuming an 80-to-85 pitch limit, we’re probably looking at something around five innings for Gallen. Yamamoto, with a bit more efficiency, could get through six.
That would bring us into Vesia/Scott/Diaz territory, unless Dave Roberts continues to feel the need to feed Treinen high-leverage work.
A slightly rosier projection for Gallen than his 2025 season still likely keeps him more than half a run behind Yamamoto, giving the Dodgers significant edges both in starting pitching and offense.
Also, despite both bullpens projecting the same 4.01 ERA via Fangraphs depth charts, the healthy, currently available pitchers give the Dodgers an edge in higher-leverage situations.
If we stop there, the Dodgers are rightfully the very large more than two-to-one favorites the market currently says they are.
However, base-running and defense move the number back a bit in Arizona’s direction.
In my first piece for the Action Network, I’m going to be endorsing a large underdog that is likely to lose, but probably not as often as the current market suggests.
The Dodgers are a public favorite, which often leads to over-pricing, and that may be exactly what we have here.
The proof is that, despite winning the second-most games in the league last year (93), they were the seventh-least profitable team. According to Sports Insights, a unit on the Dodgers in each game would have turned backers into 13-plus-unit losers on the season. Via Covers.com, the Dodgers were the only team in the bottom 12 that won more than 83 games.
They appear to be overvalued here as well.
Bettors may even elect to wait, as the line has been climbing this week.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+190 or Better)
