Tigers vs. White Sox MLB Odds & Picks: Betting Value In Fading Detroit (Tuesday, April 27)
Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Jeimer Candelario.
- The Chicago White Sox will take on the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night.
- The Tigers rank last in six major offensive categories and own the worst offense in all of baseball.
- Michael Arinze explains below why there's value in backing Lucas Giolito and the White Sox on the run line.
Tigers vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||-265|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Chicago White Sox are on a roll after sweeping the Texas Rangers last weekend. Chicago has won four straight games, including six of its last seven. It’ll try to keep that momentum going on Tuesday when it welcomes a reeling Tigers team for a three-game series.
Detroit was on the wrong side of a four-game sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals this past weekend. The Tigers could only muster up five runs in the entire four games. They have just one win in their last 11 games and have been shut out three times during that span.
Let’s be honest, the Tigers’ offense has gone into the witness protection program, and it would take a large-scale search party to try to locate their coordinates.
Things won’t get any easier for them in the series opener against Lucas Giolito, who’ll be looking to bounce back after allowing eight runs in his last outing.
The Tigers will counter with Jose Urena, who is still looking for his first win after four starts. Urena has pitched well of late, but he’s been unable to get the necessary run support from his teammates. And judging by Detroit’s recent offensive displays at the plate, Urena might be waiting a little longer.
It’s no surprise that Detroit’s recent skid has now given it the distinction of the worst offense in Major League Baseball. Here’s a list of offensive categories from FanGraphs in which Detroit is either in the last place or tied for the last place:
- Last in strikeout rate (28.9%).
- Tied for last in batting average (.208).
- Last in on-base percentage (.268).
- Last in wOBA (.276).
- Tied for last in wRC+ value (77).
- Last in wins above replacement (-1.0).
There isn’t anything the Tigers have shown in their recent games to suggest they’re close to turning the corner, either. They’ve scored just seven runs in their last five games, which is an average of 1.4 runs per game during that stretch. It won’t get any easier against Giolito, who they’ve beaten only three times in the nine games they’ve faced him.
Tigers pitcher Urena is quite familiar with Detroit’s lack of offense. In his four starts this season, the Tigers have averaged just 2.5 runs per game. He registered quality starts in his last two outings by pitching seven innings and allowing two earned runs on each occasion. Yet, Urena went 0-1 in those starts, and he’s still in search of his first win of the season.
In fact, Urena went winless last season when he was with the Miami Marlins and hasn’t recorded a win since June 1 in the 2019 season.
Urena has been pitching to some bad luck for some time now, and it seems he pitches just well enough to lose nowadays. He is showing some positive regression when you consider his 3.90 FIP to his 5.52 ERA.
However, I’m reluctant to throw my support behind him until I see this Tigers offense begin to show some life at the plate.
Chicago White Sox
It took some time, but it seems the White Sox are starting to find their stride. Chicago hadn’t won more than two consecutive games until its recent four-game winning streak.
Its lineup has been a big part of its success of late. And since we went through some of Detroit’s offensive rankings, it’s only fair we do the same with Chicago using those same categories:
- Fourth in strikeout rate (21.9%).
- Third in batting average (.261).
- Second in on-base percentage (.341).
- Fifth in wOBA (.330).
- Third in wRC+ value (118).
- First in wins above replacement (5.2).
The White Sox are a top-five team in many key metrics, and the contrast between them and the Tigers is night and day. Chicago is averaging 5.14 runs per game, and it likes to do its work early in the game, as evidenced by 47 of its 108 runs (43.5%) being scored in the first three innings. Its ability to jump on opposing pitchers early in ballgames improves its chances of quickly getting to the underbelly or bullpen of big-league teams.
If you thought the Tigers’ offense was bad, their bullpen might give them a run for their money. Detroit’s relievers are last in the league with a 5.87 ERA and 5.43 FIP. They have the worst HR/9 ratio (1.88) and are 26th with 5.17 walks per nine innings.
This is an area of concern for Detroit because even if they get a representative outing from Urena, opposing teams have a chance of springing some runs as soon as they catch sight of a Tigers reliever on the mound.
This is something that Chicago can certainly look to exploit on Tuesday.
Tigers-White Sox Pick
If you’re the White Sox, you’d have to like your chances of Giolito bouncing back from a rough outing in which he only lasted one inning. The good news is that he should be relatively rested after getting the hook so early in the ballgame.
If you take out that start, Giolito allowed a total of five runs combined in his other three starts. He’s an even bigger candidate for positive regression when comparing his 3.51 FIP to his 5.79 ERA.
But I think this game is really all about the slumping Detroit bats and how Chicago has dominated them in recent memory.
Since the 2019 season, the White Sox are +17.44 units against the Tigers on the run line. In fact, they’re on an eight-game winning streak against them and 7-1 on the run line during that stretch.
I like the White Sox to continue that trend with another win by margin on Tuesday night. DraftKings has the best price on the board at -113 odds as of writing, so I’ll look to place my action there.
Pick: White Sox Run Line -1.5 (-113)