MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (Monday, August 10)

Credit:

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images. Pictured: Nomar Mazara

  • The Chicago White Sox take on the Detroit Tigers at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday. The White Sox are the favorite at -139 and the total is set at 9.
  • Lefty Dallas Keuchel will be on the mound for the White Sox. He's 2-1 through the first five innings this season, and Michael Arinze likes Chicago's F5 ML (-155).
  • Read Arinze's full betting preview for White Sox vs. Tigers below.

White Sox vs. Tigers Betting Odds

White Sox Odds -139 [Bet Now]
Tigers Odds +120 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (-109/109) [Bet Now]
Time 7:10 p.m. ET 

Odds as of Monday at 5:20 p.m. ET and via BetRivers. Get up to a $250 deposit match at BetRivers today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

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Break up the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers, who had a season win total of 21.5 (win percentage of .358) set by PointsBet, are 8-5 with a .615 win percentage and fresh off a three-game-sweep of the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates.

If that sounds like a little bit of sarcasm, it probably should. The truth is that all of the Tigers’ previous opponents are below .500 teams.

They’ll now face a new test against a Chicago White Sox team that leads the American League in batting average (.261) and is second in total bases (235). The Tigers will look to Michael Fulmer to help keep their winning streak alive.

However, Fulmer’s ability to handle the workload could pose a challenge as he continues to work back from Tommy John surgery.

Tigers Starting Pitcher

Michael Fulmer makes his second start of the season on Monday night. It will be exactly 14 days since his last start, so his sharpness could become an issue in this game.

His last start wouldn’t be considered a memorable one: 2.2IP, 5H, 4ER, 3HR, 13.50 ERA and 17.22 FIP. In that start, Fulmer’s average velocity on his fastball was more than two mph slower (93.4) compared to when he last pitched in the majors.

It’s been widely speculated that for certain pitchers, their run average can increase by .25 runs for every mph lost off their fastball. Michael Fulmer could find himself in that group should he fail to rediscover his lost velocity.

White Sox Starting Pitcher

The White Sox will look to lefty, Dallas Keuchel, to try to tame the Tigers. Unlike Fulmer, Keuchel is already in midseason form as he looks to make his fourth start of the year.

Keuchel has not only added a veteran presence to the staff, but he’s also brought quality as well. Keuchel is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA and .96 WHIP thus far this season. He was stellar despite picking up a loss in his last start, when he went seven innings, five hits and eight strikeouts with one earned run.

For the season, he’s producing a ground ball/fly ball ratio of 2.54 and of his batted balls, only 22.4% of them are fly balls. In eight appearances and seven starts against the Tigers, Keuchel is 4-2 with a 4.05 ERA but he’s 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA when pitching at Comerica Park.

However, a closer look reveals that Keuchel’s team went 3-1 in those starts at Comerica, for 4.34 units.

Betting Analysis

There are quite a few narratives for this game tonight. Perhaps the line is too high in favor of the White Sox, or maybe that the Detroit Tigers are simply hotter than two Billy goats holding blowtorches.

For me, this game comes down to pitching, as it usually does.

Fulmer is not expected to go beyond three innings and that means the Tigers will be in to their bullpen pretty early in this game.

I’d keep a close eye on Fulmer if there is any change or improvement in his fastball velocity, considering he would’ve had some bullpen sessions in between his last start.

He’ll have to pitch carefully to Nomar Mazara, who’s 5 for 9 with a home run and two RBIs against him. As a whole, the active totals for White Sox hitters are 19 for 62, 2 HRs, 12 RBIs, 9 BBs and a .306 average. Against Keuchel, the active totals for Tigers hitters are 17 for 67, 2 HRs, 4 RBIs, 5 BBs and a .254 average.

In 2020, favorites that closed with odds ranging from -151 to -160 are 13-2 for 9.9 units while underdogs that closed with odds between +131 and +140 are 9-13 for -.83 units.

The early money seems to be on the Tigers here given the drop in the opening price and my guess is that it has to do with the White Sox’ extra-inning loss on Sunday night to the Indians.

However, that’s not enough to dissuade this bettor. Keuchel is 2-1 this season in the first five innings and this looks like a prime spot to isolate and target the Tigers starting pitcher as he continues in his road back to recovery.

I’ll take Keuchel and the White Sox on the money line (-155) at BetRivers through the first five innings of the contest. At worst if the game remains tied after five then it’ll be a push. I’m banking that this Tigers Cinderella story won’t have the legs to make it four-in-a-row against the White Sox tonight.

The Pick: White Sox F5 ML -155 (Play up to -165)

[In Illinois? Bet now at BetRivers.]

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