Nationals vs. Yankees MLB Odds & Picks: Bet the Over On Sunday (May 9)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Yankees star Aaron Judge.
- The New York Yankees will take on the Washington Nationals in MLB action on Sunday afternoon.
- BJ Cunningham sees two good matchups for the offenses creating value on the over/under.
- Check out Cunningham's full betting analysis complete with updated odds and a pick based on his breakdown below.
Nationals vs. Yankees Odds
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The Washington Nationals and New York Yankees meet for a rubber match Sunday after New York walked off with Saturday’s win in extra innings.
Washington is off to difficult start to the season, with it currently sitting in last place in the NL East. The good news is the Nationals got star player Juan Soto back for this weekend’s series. They’ll send Joe Ross to the mound in hopes he can hold up against the Yankees’ powerful lineup.
New York got things back on track Saturday, walking off in the 11th inning with a 4-3 victory. However, the Yankees are off to a bad start, sitting 3.5 games behind the first-place Boston. New York will send Domingo German to the mound, with the hope he can shut down the Washington lineup and give the club a series win.
The Nationals’ lineup is very top heavy and doesn’t have much firepower once you get past Soto and Trea Turner. Washington’s offense has been below average to start the season with its .309 wOBA and 93 wRC+.
The good news for Washington is it has a fantastic matchup against German. He is mainly a curveball/fastball pitcher, as he throws those two pitches more than 60 percent of the time. Those are the two pitches the Nationals have hit well this season, as they’re in the top half of baseball against both pitches.
New York Yankees
Through the first 33 games of the season, the Yankees’ lineup that was supposed to be one of the best in the American League is struggling big time. New York is producing just a .314 wOBA and 104 wRC+, which a massive step down from its 2020 campaign.
The biggest problem for the Yankees is they’re struggling versus every single pitch type, as the only pitch they have positive weighted runs against is the fastball. Ross is pretty much struggling with his entire arsenal, so it could be a perfect opportunity for the Yankees’ offense to show their prowess.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Joe Ross vs. Domingo German
2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)
Nationals Starting Pitcher
Joe Ross, RHP
2019 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Ross didn’t pitch at all in 2020 and he’s finding it hard at the moment, posting a 5.84 xERA through his first five starts. His biggest problem is he can’t keep the ball inside the park. Ross has given up six homers already, which isn’t good news for him heading to a very hitter friendly park in Yankee Stadium.
Ross has been experiencing frustration on the mound, but to be fair, 10 of his 13 earned runs allowed came in one start against the Cardinals. So, if you throw out that one start, Ross has actually been pretty effective. It will be interesting to see how well he does against a powerful New York lineup.
Yankees Starting Pitcher
Domingo Germain, RHP
2019 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Much like Ross, German didn’t pitch at all 2020 and he’s struggling with most of his pitches in 2021. Opponents are drilling his fastball, hitting for a .350 average and .505 wOBA. However, the one pitch German dominates with is his curveball. He throws it more than any other pitch and is only allowing a .135 average and .149 wOBA against it.
Domingo German ends the first with a NASTY curveball 🤮 pic.twitter.com/O5Z1sEldEy
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) March 15, 2021
Outside of struggling with his fastball, Germain’s biggest problem is he’s giving up way too many home runs. Through his first five starts, German has conceded six homers, with half of those coming off his fastball. Fastballs are the pitch the Nationals are the best against this season, so German could be in for a long afternoon.
The Yankees have a pretty big edge in the bullpen department in this series. The Nationals’ relievers are due for some negative regression. So far this season, they’ve posted one of baseball’s best ERA’s at 3.49; however, their xFIP is over a full run higher at 4.72.
New York used up a lot of their best relievers in the extra inning game on Saturday, so it’ll be interesting to see who is available. Either way, the Yankees have one of the best bullpens, posting a 2.98 ERA and 3.46 xFIP this season.
With two bad starting pitchers on the mound going up against two very powerful offenses, I think this one could turn into a slugfest quickly, especially against two taxed bullpens.
Since I have 10.47 projected runs, I think there is some value on the total going over 9 runs at -135 odds via BetMGM and will make it my top selection.
Pick: Total Over 9 Runs (-135)