Friday’s MLB Over/Under: Sizzling Diamondbacks Take on the Struggling Mets in the Desert

Jun 15, 2018 3:30 PM EDT

I failed to build a winning streak with yesterday’s Astros-Athletics Under 7.5 bet, but one of the beauties of baseball betting is you can always get it back the next day. Let’s see what I have on tap to commence the weekend.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 45-28-2, +14 units
Yesterday’s Result: Astros-Athletics Under 7.5, Verlander vs. Montas (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

New York Mets @ Arizona Diamondbacks | O/U: 8
9:40 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Seth Lugo (2-1, 1.77 ERA) vs. Zack Godley (6-5, 4.97 ERA)

Boy, has there been a more helpful lineup in recent memory for under bets than the Yoenis Cespedes-less Mets?

It’s tough to say — San Diego’s dead-bat offense the last several years would give the Amazin’s a run for their money — but regardless, the fact remains that the continually reeling Mets just can’t do anything at the plate while their star slugger is sidelined. After all, they’ve now scored four runs or fewer in a whopping 13 consecutive ballgames — even plating three or fewer in all but two of those. Furthermore, last night was the first time in nine games, according to ESPN Stats and Information, where the Mets scored in more than one inning. Yikes.

With all of this in mind, it’s hard not to look at tonight’s start as a favorable one for Godley. Despite some unimpressive numbers this year, Godley looks like he’s rounding back into form after hurling 5.2 innings of two-run ball with eight Ks at Coors Field his last time out, which has to be a huge confidence booster.

Under backers here should also appreciate the fact that Godley will be working at Chase Field. He’s actually been significantly better at home this year (3-1, 2.93 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) compared to on the road (3-4, 6.53 ERA, 1.83 WHIP), and he’s been notably consistent in the desert, too, holding opponents to no more than two runs in four of his five home outings. The one instance where he didn’t still saw him record a fine outing in which he lasted into the seventh.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Diamondbacks have been scorching hot. Thee Snakes are 10-3 and have scored at least four runs in all but two games this month.

Fortunately, we’ll be relying on Lugo to do the bidding for the Mets in this one, and based on how he’s been going since getting his shot in the rotation again, we can feel good about entrusting the 28-year-old to weather the storm.

In his two starts this year, Lugo owns a spotless ERA. It’s an admitted small sample as he’s compiled only 10 innings over those two outings, but those innings came against some elite competition (Cubs, Yankees) and they were impressive — with 11 strikeouts and only five baserunners allowed. For the season, Lugo owns an impressive 47/9 K/BB ratio, averaging more than a strikeout per inning. That can be especially relevant this evening, as Arizona is sixth in MLB in strikeouts.

Play: UNDER 8 (-110)

Follow me on Twitter @MattZylbert

Credit:

Jennifer Stewart, USA Today Sports

Follow Matt Zylbert on Twitter
@MattZylbert

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