MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/25: Can Brad Peacock Stay Hot vs. Boston?
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brad Peacock.
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 25 with his model below, and highlights Rays-Indians (4:10 p.m. ET) and Red Sox-Astros (7:15 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Minnesota Twins scored 11 runs on Friday and have scored 27 runs over their past two games. The Twins lead all of baseball with 101 home runs in just 50 games played.
— Daren Willman (@darenw) May 25, 2019
Eddie Rosario leads the team with 15 home runs, but Max Kepler is having a breakout season and has been heating up as of late.
— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) May 25, 2019
The Twins are 34-16, eight games clear of a Cleveland team that is currently ailing without Corey Kluber and Mike Clevinger. Minnesota is well on its way to being 2019’s most surprising division champion.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines, and 4-0-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 5-3-1, and I was up 0.83 units for the day.
Friday was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents on the Mets F5 spread (-175 to -190) and 5 cents on their game spread (-130 to -135). I also gained 10 cents on the Rays F5 moneyine (-140 to -150) and 3 cents on the Blue Jays moneyline (+112 to +109).
However, I lost 15 cents on the A’s spread (+110 to +125), 6 cents on the Marlins moneyline (+130 to +136), 3 cents on the Angels F5 moneyline (-160 to -157) and 3 cents on the Astros moneyline (+135 to +138).
On Deck for Saturday, May 25
The model recommends four full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Friday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins, and Pittsburgh Pirates as the full-game plays. It also likes the Pirates and White Sox as F5 plays.
Of those, I’m only particularly interested in playing the Pirates in an extremely contrarian spot at home against the Dodgers. The Pirates are taking less than 20% of both the moneyline tickets and cash with Joe Musgrove going against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
12 of the Pirates past 15 wins have come by more than one run, so I’ll also lay -1 run at big odds to retain the protection in case they win by only a run.
There are a number of edges just below the 4% threshold that I also played today, and some spot plays that I like, too.
I’ll continue to ride the Oakland Athletics on the run line against lefties. After beating Wade LeBlanc on Friday, Oakland is 7-2 against the spread versus southpaw starters this season. Both of those spread losses came against Kikuchi in one-run victories. The A’s will look to finally beat him by more than one run tonight — albeit without the services of Khris Davis who hit the injured list yesterday.
The Astros, Braves (F5), and Rays each showed an edge of around 3% in my projections, and I’m happy to back playoff contending teams any time that they show value.
The Rays have been a dominant team against the run line this season, so I’ll also add a little taste on them on the reverse run line at juicy odds (-1.5, +185).
The Braves are my only F5 play for today. Mike Soroka is coming off of the best start of his young career, allowing one run on just two hits over eight innings against the Giants.
Soroka isn’t a monster strikeout pitcher but he limits walks and uses his dominant sinker (+8.3 pitch value) and slider to generate a ton of weak grounders (56.5% groundball rate).
30 Seconds of Mike Soroka Sinkers. pic.twitter.com/hu2Lbyts5n
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 5, 2019
Soroka’s .203 batting average on balls in play and 87.2% strand rate are both due to regress towards league averages of roughly .300 and 70%.
Soroka won’t continue to pitch to a 1.00 ERA, obviously, but he has earned a 2.89 FIP and a 3.71 xFIP in 2019 while showing All-Star potential.
His ability to work around this Cardinals lineup is just one reason why I would also play the Under in that game.
Doubleheader strategy will also be in effect today if the Yankees can pull out a win in Game 1 against the Royals.
Bets (So Far) for May 25
- Atlanta Braves (-125) F5 Moneyline
- Houston Astros (-125) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-1.5, +147) Game Moneyline
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+160) Game Moneyline
- Pittsburgh Pirates (-1, +245) Game Spread
- Tampa Bay Rays (+116) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, +185) Game Spread
- Over 8.5, Miami at Washington
- Under 9.5, Atlanta at St. Louis
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/25
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.