MLB Odds, Picks Today: Red Sox vs. Yankees Preview (Friday, Sept. 23)

MLB Odds, Picks Today: Red Sox vs. Yankees Preview (Friday, Sept. 23) article feature image

Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees.

  • The Red Sox and Yankees meet again in the Bronx for the second game of their four-game set.
  • All eyes will be on Aaron Judge as he chases home run history and Kenny Ducey thinks that increases the betting value on the total.
  • Read on for his game analysis and betting pick.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Red Sox Odds+190
Yankees Odds-225
Over/Under7.5 (-110 / -110)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
TVApple TV+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Yankees and Red Sox will renew their rivalry on Friday in the second of four games in the Bronx, following a dramatic walk-off win on Thursday night.

With history on the line, the Yankees enter this game with much anticipation. Does that equal a win? Let's take a look at this one.

Red Sox Face Uphill Battle on the Mound

Rich Hill will get things going for Boston, and that's surely music to the Yankees' ears. The left-hander owns a 4.70 ERA on the season, and while his 4.32 xERA suggests some positive regression could be on the way, there's not exactly a lot of room to grow here.

Hill's continued to struggle striking hitters out in his older age, sitting down just 19.6% of batters this season. That's been palatable, though, considering his expected stats are right around league average, as is his walk rate. In a surprising twist, he's yet to face the Yankees this season, so Hill could certainly be in for one of his toughest challenges of the year.

Hill dominated the Orioles two turns ago in Baltimore, shutting out a formidable offense over the course of five innings, but even with that the veteran owns a 6.62 ERA in September.

It's also worth noting here that Hill's ground ball rate has once again come in below league average, and his fly ball rate ahead of league average. Playing the Yankees in Yankee Stadium, that's going to be tough.

Yankees Starting to Roll Once Again

I am once again here to tell you that the Yankees are back. They've now won four in a row and eight out of their last 10. In the last two weeks, they're first in baseball when it comes to wRC+, and it's not even close. New York sits at 148, and the next-best team, which is Toronto, is at 129.

While the Yankees' strikeout rate is still a little high at 22.7%, their walk rate remains strong at 9.8%. In addition, Harrison Bader has become the latest to return for the Yankees, providing some much-needed contact hitting and speed. We've already seen it make a  huge difference in just three short games. There's simply a different energy about this team.

One potential hang-up with this team would be Gerrit Cole. Yes, he's still a dominant pitcher, but that doesn't seem to be the case when he pitches against the Red Sox. In four starts versus Boston this year, the righty owns a 5.48 ERA with seven home runs against him. It's been Rafael Devers who has been the one who has done the most damage against Cole, and it's very possible disaster could be avoided by just walking the Red Sox third baseman.

Red Sox-Yankees Pick

Cole owns a 4.58 ERA this month and has allowed exactly four earned runs in back-to-back outings, one of which came against Boston.

The history with this guy and the Red Sox really speaks for itself. I find it hard to believe he gets out of here unscathed, and I'm equally confident that the Yankees will torch Hill, who seems to be on his last legs here.

The total has been a solid look every time Cole has taken the ball against the Red Sox, and with a hot Yankees offense helping the cause I don't see why this doesn't become the play.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)

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