MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 2 Strikeout Totals, Including Aaron Civale, Julio Urías (Monday, June 21)
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urías
With a small slate of only eight games, there are not that many props to choose from on Monday’s Major League Baseball card.
Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like, both overs.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 47-46, -4.57 Units, -4.9% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Aaron Civale (CLE) — 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+120)
|Indians at Cubs||Cubs (-155)|
|Time||8:05 p.m. ET|
In a league where the average starting pitcher last about five innings per start, Aaron Civale is a rare breed. Civale is averaging around 6 2/3 innings in his 14 starts this year. He has a 10-2 record with a 3.48 ERA, so Cleveland loves to keep him in games due to the quality of his pitching rather than his ability to survive deep into games. Last season, Civale averaged more than six innings per start, so this season is not a fluke.
The median MLB lineup averages 8.77 strikeouts per game. The Chicago Cubs’ lineup averages 9.42 strikeouts per game, which is the seventh-worst in the league. With Chicago being 7.4% more strikeout prone than the typical MLB lineup, Civale is likely to have more strikeouts than usual in Monday night’s game.
Despite lasting deep into games, Civale is not a big strikeout pitcher, averaging 5.09 strikeouts per start. When you adjust that for Chicago’s lineup, Civale should have 5.47 strikeouts tonight.
Some sites are offering Civale’s strikeout total at 5.5 strikeouts with the over at +115 or better. However, BetMGM has set Civale’s total at only 4.5 strikeouts with the over set at -160 odds. Even with the juice, the extra strikeout is worth it based on Civale’s low strikeout rate. With Civale’s usage and Chicago’s lineup, he should easily go over his total tonight and I would bet it up to -175 for 4.5 strikeouts and +110 for 5.5.
Pick: Aaron Civale Over 4.5 Strikeouts -160 (BetMGM) would play up to -175
Kevin Davis Score: 5
Julio Urías (LAD) — 4.5 Strikeouts (-167/+128)
|Dodgers at Padres||Padres -124|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
The San Diego Padres host the LA Dodgers this week in another highly anticipated matchup between NL West rivals. Both teams have strong starting pitchers, and we’ll see two good ones on Monday in Yu Darvish and Julio Urías. It’s Urías we’re focusing on here, however.
Not only does Urías have a 9-2 record with a 3.54 ERA, but he also has a decent strikeout rate and pitches for six innings per start. However, San Diego has one of the more disciplined lineups in the league.
Urías has a strikeout rate of 9.64 strikeouts per nine innings. In a typical start this season, Urias lasts six innings and has 6.43 strikeouts. The issue for Urias is getting enough strikeouts against a San Diego lineup that is capable of sending a pitcher to the showers earlier than they would like.
Not only can San Diego produce runs, but the Padres rarely strikeout. They average only 8.34 strikeouts per game which is 0.4 fewer than the median MLB team. If you adjust Urías’ typical strikeout total to San Diego’s lineup, he should have 6.15 strikeouts tonight.
At only 4.5 strikeouts, the over on Urias at DraftKings is a great bet even at -167 odds. I would bet it up to -190 or would bet over 5.5 strikeouts up to -135.
Pick: Julio Urias Over 4.5 Strikeouts -167 (DraftKings) would bet up to -190
- Kevin Davis Score: 8