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MLB Player Props: Setting A Low Bar for Marco Estrada

Credit:

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marco Estrada.

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/unders for Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada.
  • Mark Gallant explains why he's betting these two props.

Another day in paradise yesterday, as Matt Shoemaker struck out just four Twins in six innings while Joey Lucchesi struck out just four Rockies in seven innings.

Nothing like waking up to see a that a strikeout-pitcher managed just four strikeouts in seven innings against a terrible lineup. If anything, I would have imagined Lucchesi’s troubles would’ve stemmed from not going deep into the ballgame. Four strikeouts in seven innings is just inexcusable. I need a drink.

MLB Player Props, Tuesday April 16

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Blue Jays SP Aaron Sanchez

The Pick: Over 3.5 (-120)

Well, the Cobbler couldn’t get the job done last night in Minnesota, but that doesn’t mean his teammate can’t. Aaron Sanchez has struck out at least five batters in each of his three starts this year and I don’t think the Twins are the team that will put an end to the trend.

There is one guy in their lineup who’s not going to strike out — Willians Astudillo. He’s not going to walk, either, which should at least save Sanchez some pitches.

Though Sanchez has struck out at least five batters in each of his three starts, he also hasn’t made it past the sixth inning, as walks have been a bit of an issue. Luckily, the Twins as a team rank just 24th in the league in walk=rate so hopefully Sanchez doesn’t put up too many free passes.

Athletics SP Marco Estrada

The Pick: Under 3.5 (-115)

Marco Estrada is what I would describe as a bad pitcher. If he were any worse, he probably wouldn’t be in the MLB.

Despite a free-falling K/9 and xFIP that has spiked into the 7s, Estrada has managed to keep his ERA below 5…barely.

This fly-ball pitcher extraordinaire faces an Astros lineup that can mash and ranks towards the bottom of the league in strikeouts. In two starts against them last year, he went a combined 9.2 innings, allowed seven runs and struck out just two batters — one in each start.

And that was when he was piling up strikeouts to the tune of 6.45 per nine innings. These days, he’s setting the league back decades, as he is below the 5 K/9 mark.

In four starts this season, he’s struck out exactly three batters three times and one batter in the other start.

The over/under is a very low one, but it should be. If Estrada somehow manages to strike out more than three batters for the first time this season, I’m going to be very, very mad.

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