The Seattle Mariners host the New York Yankees on March 31, 2026. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Yankees are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+158) on the run line. The Mariners are -104 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-192) on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs (-105 / -115).
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Mariners Prediction
- Yankees vs Mariners Pick: Lean Under 7 or Better
My Yankees vs Mariners best bet is on the Under if we can get the best price. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mariners Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +158 | 7 -105o / -115u | -112 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 7 -105o / -115u | -104 |
- Yankees vs Mariners spread: Yankees -1.5 (+158), Mariners +1.5 (-192)
- Yankees vs Mariners over/under: 7 (-105 / -115)
- Yankees vs Mariners moneyline: Yankees -112, Mariners -104
Yankees vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| Max Fried (LHP) | Stat | Logan Gilbert (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 0.00 / 3.94 | ERA / xERA | 5.06 / 1.94 |
| 2.83 / 4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 2.96 / 3.07 |
| 0.47 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 13% | K-BB% | 33.3% |
| 41.2% | GB% | 14.3% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 117 |
| 104 | Location+ | 127 |
Yankees vs Mariners Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Not that Max Fried really had anything to prove, but his pre-season numbers were a bit concerning to some.
It wasn’t so much the results as his 92.4 MPH sinker, which was 1.6 MPH slower than last season and 1.2 MPH below his career average. He’d also allowed nine runs over 5 1/3 innings with as many walks as strikeouts over his past two opening starts of the season.
Fried’s Opening Night performance in San Francisco squashed any of those concerns. While his velocity wasn’t quite matching last year’s career high, he was up more than half a mph from pre-season across 6 1/3 shutout innings. He only struck out four of 23 with a fairly low 41.2% ground-ball rate, but didn’t allow a single barrel.
Depending on your point of view, Fried was either coming off one of his best seasons ever by traditional stats (19 Wins, 2.86 ERA), his standard All-Star level season (17.2% K-BB, 3.60 SIERA, 3.38 ERA), or even a bit of a decline.
Let me be clear. There is no way anyone could evaluate Fried’s 2025 season and tell you he wasn’t worth the large contract he signed, but his barrel (6.9%), hard hit (37.2%), and ground ball rates (52.4%) were some of the worst numbers of his career. Still, those are numbers some pitchers would still give their non-dominant arm for, illustrating how strong a performer he’s been in recent years.
Fried threw a few more four-seamers against the Giants than usual. But otherwise, it was his usual pitch mix, with a 4.49 Bot ERA that was a bit worse than last season, but with a 115 Pitching+ that was one point better than his 2025 mark.
The Mariners posted a 108 wRC+ both at home and against southpaws last season, with the projected lineup boosting up to 118 against the side with a .170 ISO — very impressive considering the park they call home.
The great thing about a five pitch mix that you throw all at least 10%, but none even 30% of the time, is that if someone hits a pitch really well, you don’t have to throw it.
That may be the case when facing Cal Raleigh, who murders sinkers, Fried’s fourth most frequent pitch against righties last year (12%).
But Fried can otherwise mix and match against this Seattle lineup without having to worry about being at a disadvantage.
The Marriners are a net-zero base-running team (at least the projected lineup), while Fried is one of the toughest pitchers to run against in the league.
FanGraphs depth chart projections make the Yankees a middle-of-the-league bullpen (3.91 ERA, 4.01 SIERA). Despite going to five relievers in Monday’s game, David Bednar was not used, while Camilo Doval threw merely two pitches.
The odd off day on Sunday served this relief corps well, with only Paul Blackburn throwing more than 16 pitches in the opener against the Mariners.
The projected lineup was worth 27 Fielding Runs (Statcast) for the Yankees last year, giving them a significant edge in that department.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
My American League Cy Young pick is the only selection where I went completely contrarian in our staff predictions piece, being the lone vote for Logan Gilbert, whose 26.5 K-BB% was only behind Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal among those with at least 130 innings pitched last year.
While Gilbert’s 25 starts were his fewest since his rookie season, his 3.44 ERA exceeded all of his non-pitch modeling estimators and by more than one-third of a run once you adjust for the misfortune of 20 of his 28 barrels leaving the park for a 3.35 FIP.
Only 40% of those home runs were surrendered at home in six more innings than he pitched on the road. Gilbert, like just about every Seattle pitcher, is far more effective at home (33.5% K-BB, .226 wOBA allowed in 2025, 23.9% K-BB, .272 wOBA allowed for his career).
Something in the atmosphere helps fastballs play up, and Seattle pitchers throw a ton of them.
Gilbert threw his fastball 96.3 MPH on average last season with 16.6 inches of induced vertical break (iVB). That’s only a bit above average, but it still generated a 20.4% Whiff rate while setting up his slider.
Gilbert was down a half-tick in his first start and allowed three runs to Cleveland over 5 1/3 innings at home. He also struck out seven on 12 whiffs without a walk while allowing just five hard-hit balls (35.7%).
The crazy thing was that he threw a cutter 20.9% of the time and cut his slider usage in half (17.4%). He did not throw a cutter last year, and all 18 were to left-handed hitters. It did not induce a whiff, but did generate five called strikes, and only one in four put in play was hit hard.
The cutter will certainly give a predominantly left-handed Yankee lineup something new to think about. Gilbert kept batters from either side of the plate below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA last year, with left-handed hitters posting marks under .285.
The mighty Yankee offense posted a 120 wRC+ away from home and 118 against right-handed pitching last year, with the projected lineup at a 128 wRC+ and .233 ISO against righties.
Interestingly, Giancarlo Stanton presents more of a matchup problem for Gilbert than Aaron Judge, as he performed well against four-seamers, splitters, and sliders, while Judge struggled against splitters.
Though Gilbert can be run on, Raleigh throws well, while Jose Caballero is the only significant base-running threat for the Yanks.
Seattle has the best bullpen depth chart projection of all 30 teams, according to Fangraphs (3.73 ERA, 3.85 FIP). While they had to empty the bullpen on Monday in a tight game, nobody threw more than 17 pitches, and they were able to walk it off without even going to Andres Munoz, who hasn’t pitched since Saturday. In fact, Cooper Criswell was the only reliever who pitched on Sunday for Seattle.
Julio Rodriguez and Raleigh are strong defensive players, but they’re also the only players with positive Fielding Run values in an overall net-negative projected lineup.
Yankees vs Mariners Picks
Seattle opens the roof more than any other team (75%), but with an early forecast in the low 50s, the presumption is a closed roof on Tuesday.
However, the roof at the T is more of an awning than a full roof closure, where weather can still have some impact.
Projections aren’t for strong winds on Tuesday, but Seattle is the most negative run environment in the league by a wide margin, whether the roof is open (83 average Park Run Factor) or closed (77).
If the umpire rotation holds true, we’re looking at Alfonso Marquez behind the plate. He’s one of the more hitter-friendly umpires in the league, and we’ve learned that umpire tendencies and catcher framing are still alive in this league, even with ABS active.
Giving Gilbert the slight edge (how could I not after my Cy Young prediction), the Yankees are one of the few offenses in the league that can top Seattle’s lineup.
While the Mariners should hold a small edge in base running and a slightly larger edge in the bullpen, the defensive gap is strongly in favor of the visitors.
Ultimately, I project this game as a coin flip. Unfortunately, that’s exactly where the market stands.
The Yankees are a public team, as evidenced by their 8.86 units lost overall last year despite winning the most games in the league (94). But the Mariners are a hot pick to come out of the American League this year, so I don’t see much resistance pushing this line far in either direction.
I would lean slightly towards the Under if forced, but I don’t have enough confidence in how this park plays with a closed roof to stake much on that park run factor being entirely accurate in a not-so-large sample (25% of 81 home games over three years means we’re only talking about 60 games).
As far as player props, I project both pitchers to strike out almost exactly 6.5 batters — again, in line with the market.
If you’re looking for player props, perhaps you can back the red-hot Stanton (who has at least two hits in each game so far), but he’s in a tough power park against a great pitcher and runs like a broken stick figure at this point.
Caballero to steal a base (+280) might be of interest, but he’d have to find a way to reach.
After exhausting all options, I don’t have any recommendations or even strong leans here, but I hope I’ve given bettors enough information to find something of interest.
If something does pop, I’ll be sure to post in the app (Matt Trollo or RockyJade).
Pick: Lean Under 7 or Better
