The playoffs are rapidly approaching, but perhaps the most exciting end-of-season storyline has been the National League MVP race between Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Every single time Ohtani makes a statement, PCA responds.
I digress. I’ve circled three more players that I like to hit a home run on Wednesday night.
Let’s break it down. Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 PM | |
| 6:40 PM | |
| 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Giants vs. Guardians
The long-awaited debut of Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson has finally arrived.
The former Little League World Series superstar takes the mound Wednesday, and what better way to welcome him to the Big Leagues than by fading him?
In 10 starts at Triple-A, Wilkinson allowed 1.44 HR/9 while posting just a 32.8% ground-ball rate. Those numbers are expected to carry over at the next level, with projection systems like THE BAT X and ATC pegging the southpaw for around 1.4 HR/9.
That brings me to José Ramírez, who has had an uncharacteristically quiet season.
Since returning from injury on July 22, Ramírez has yet to find the outfield bleachers. You have to go all the way back to June 6 — more than two months ago — for his last home run.
However, I think this is a great buy-low spot on the superstar.
It took some time for Ramírez to get comfortable at the plate following his return, but over his past 15 games, we’ve seen his hard-hit rate return to normal levels. During that span, he’s hitting .323 with an .839 OPS.
It feels like only a matter of time before the home runs follow.
We also get a favorable matchup, as Ramírez has been excellent against left-handed pitching. The 33-year-old is hitting .313 with a .961 OPS against southpaws, with 41% of his hits going for extra bases. Remarkably, he has as many doubles (eight) as strikeouts (eight) against left-handed pitchers.
With Wilkinson’s expected home-run vulnerability and Ramírez’s recent turn in production, this feels like an ideal spot for the superstar to break the drought.
Pick: Jose Ramirez Home Run (14c, Kalshi)
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Let’s go from one superstar struggling to find their power to one who is firmly in the home run race.
Junior Caminero is once again putting up video-game numbers and is on pace to hit 40 home runs in back-to-back seasons. He ranks among MLB’s best in hard-hit rate (50.3%) and average exit velocity (92.8 MPH).
His underlying metrics are right in line with last season, proving his breakout is no fluke. We’ve even seen Caminero’s xwOBA climb to a career-best .367 this season.
While I’m happy to back Caminero in most matchups, it’s always a treat when he faces a pitcher I look to fade whenever he takes the mound.
Max Scherzer gets the start for Toronto, and the now pitch-to-contact right-hander is rapidly approaching the end of his career.
Scherzer’s 17.9% strikeout rate is the worst of his career, down nearly five percentage points year over year. He ranks in just the 12th percentile among qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate (34.8%), a troubling combination when you’re not generating whiffs and are allowing plenty of hard contact. His 9.8% barrel rate is also the second-worst mark of his career.
The 42-year-old right-hander throws fastballs nearly half the time. While he’s allowed just two home runs since returning from injury in late July, I expect that number to regress in the coming weeks, given his season-long 2.41 HR/9.
Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run (24c, Polymarket)
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Let’s end the series with a long-shot home run pick while fading another fastball-heavy pitcher.
While Roki Sasaki throws a high-90s fastball and is nowhere near retirement like Scherzer, the two share a commonality: a high barrel rate allowed.
Once again this season, Sasaki has struggled to keep the ball in the park. The 24-year-old ranks in just the 12th percentile among qualified pitchers in barrel rate allowed (10.2%) and an even more concerning eighth percentile in hard-hit rate allowed (44.4%).
Sasaki’s HR/9 allowed has climbed again this season over a larger sample size, now sitting at 1.7. He has allowed a home run in 67% of his starts, including multiple home runs in 24%.
That brings me to Zac Veen, who has returned to the big leagues in scorching fashion.
The lefty homered in each of his first two games, including one that cleared the right-field wall and landed in McCovey Cove.
It’s undeniable that Veen has the tools and power to become a mainstay in the big leagues. The former first-round pick hit .327 with 24 home runs across 100 games in the minors this season.
Given his success at the plate thus far — including an impressive 20% barrel rate — I’m comfortable taking a shot on any big number against Sasaki.
Until he can prove his home-run issues have subsided, Sasaki remains a pitcher worth fading against power bats.
