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MLB Home Run Picks Today: Predictions, Props for Padres vs Mets, Angels vs Astros, More for Wednesday, August 19

MLB Home Run Picks Today: Predictions, Props for Padres vs Mets, Angels vs Astros, More for Wednesday, August 19 article feature image
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David Frerker-Imagn Images. Pictured: Padres CF Jackson Merrill

It's Wednesday, and our regular 15-game slate kicks off MLB action early, with five games between 12:35 p.m. ET and 4:10 p.m. ET.

So there's plenty to choose from, and we bring you lots of bangers up until the night games.

Read on for my 5 MLB Home Run Picks Today.


MLB Home Run Picks Today

In the table below, you'll find each of Grant Neiffer's top home run prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
San Diego Padres LogoNew York Mets Logo
1:10 PM
Chicago White Sox LogoChicago Cubs Logo
2:20 PM
Arizona Diamondbacks LogoBoston Red Sox Logo
4:10 PM
New York Yankees LogoBaltimore Orioles Logo
6:35 PM
Los Angeles Angels LogoHouston Astros Logo
8:10 PM
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

Padres vs Mets Prediction, Pick

San Diego Padres Logo
Wednesday, Aug 19
1:10 PM ET
MLB.TV
New York Mets Logo
Jackson Merrill Home Run
FanDuel Logo

These odds are a bit too high given the spot. Mets starter Robert Stock has been good this season at suppressing power to lefties, but he's due for some heavy regression and grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power.

This ballpark is a slight upgrade for power, and the weather should be a plus for hitting, with temperatures in the mid-80s and wind blowing out at 6 mph.

After a slow start to the season, Jackson Merrill has been much better, hitting 11 homers since the beginning of last month.

I have the true odds for the Padres CF at around +400.

Pick: Jackson Merrill Home Run



White Sox vs Cubs Prediction, Pick

Chicago White Sox Logo
Wednesday, Aug 19
2:20 PM ET
MLB.TV
Chicago Cubs Logo
Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run
FanDuel Logo

This isn't a great spot, but these odds more than make up for it.

White Sox's Jose Urquidy should be the long reliever today, and while he has reverse splits, he grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power at this point in his career.

With wind blowing in at 6 mph, the weather should be a big downgrade for power, but Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now.

I have the true odds for the Cubs CF at around +420.

Pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run



Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Prediction, Pick

Arizona Diamondbacks Logo
Wednesday, Aug 19
4:10 PM ET
MLB.TV
Boston Red Sox Logo
Wilyer Abreu Home Run
FanDuel Logo

This is a great spot, and these odds are far too high for Wilyer Abreu. This ballpark isn't great for power, but the weather more than makes up for it, with winds blowing out at 8 mph and temperatures in the mid-80s.

Diamondbacks SP Brandon Pfaadt has been a solid matchup for lefty power this season (1.20 HR/9), and he has historically been much worse on the road.

I have the true odds for the Red Sox RF at around +350.

Pick: Wilyer Abreu Home Run



Yankees vs Orioles Prediction, Pick

New York Yankees Logo
Wednesday, Aug 19
6:35 PM ET
Amazon Prime Video
Baltimore Orioles Logo
Ben Rice Home Run
FanDuel Logo

Ben Rice gets a great spot, and these odds are far too high. Orioles starter Chris Bassitt is back on the mound, and he's one of my favorite pitchers to target for lefty power.

Bassitt has extreme splits when it comes to power, allowing a 1.49 HR/9 to lefties this season and numbers that have been well above average the last few years.

This ballpark is great for lefty power, and the weather should be above average for hitting.

I have the true odds here for the Yankees DH at around +270.

Pick: Ben Rice Home Run



Angels vs Astros Prediction, Pick

Los Angeles Angels Logo
Wednesday, Aug 19
8:10 PM ET
MLB.TV
Houston Astros Logo
Mike Trout Home Run
FanDuel Logo

Ethan Pecko is making his first career start, and I think Mike Trout has a good chance to take advantage of it.

With his pitch mix, the Astros SP grades out around splits neutral and as a plus matchup for righty power. With the Crawford Boxes, this ballpark is good for righty power.

Trout has been a little cold the last few months, but the underlying power numbers are still good.

I have the true odds for the Angels CF at around +370.

Pick: Mike Trout Home Run



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About the Author
Grant NeifferVerified Action Expert

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