MLB Playoff Prop Picks, PrizePicks Plays for Yankees vs Astros Game 2
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Chas McCormick
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Framber Valdez Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Taking the mound for Houston is left-hander Framber Valdez, who should be an excellent candidate to back in the strikeout department. It was a tremendous campaign for Valdez, who went 16-6 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 30 starts in the regular season.
His metrics suggest that regression should not be an issue as Valdez as produced a.284 xwOBA, .227 xBA and .330 xSLG. In his one start this postseason, he allowed two earned runs on four hits while striking out six through 5 2/3 innings.
Going over this strikeout total in 13 of his last 15 starts, we should expect another strong showing from Valdez against New York. Facing the Yankees just once this season, the right-hander racked up seven strikeouts over six innings.
Justin Verlander racked up 11 strikeouts in Game 1, so six should not be too large of a number for Valdez in Game 2. Looking at New York's projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 22%.
Chas McCormick Over 0.5 Total Bases
We are also backing a couple of Astros hitters in this contest as they are slated to go against right-hander Luis Severino. In his first playoff appearance, Severino allowed three earned runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS.
The first batter we are backing is Chas McCormick, who we just need to get one hit in this matchup to go over his total. While it may take McCormick a few rotations through the batting order to achieve this as he has never faced Severino in his career, we should expect him to get it done.
McCormick was one of Houston's stars in Game 1 as he crossed the plate in the bottom of the second inning to tie the game and homered in the sixth to extend the Astros' lead to 3-1.
Going 2-for-33 with a single and a homer, McCormick should be able to remain hot in Game 2 as he has now logged at least one hit in five straight games and in 11 of his last 13.
Kyle Tucker Under 0.5 Strikeouts
The other Houston batter we are backing is Kyle Tucker, who is typically very strong at avoiding strikeouts. One of the stronger hitters in this stacked Houston lineup, Tucker boasts a 15.6 K% this season.
We are getting this prop listed because he struck out quite often in the ALDS against the Seattle Mariners. However, positive regression hit in Game 1 of this series as he did not strike out.
Prior to the Seattle series, he recorded zero strikeouts in four of his last five games. Through six career plate appearances against Severino, Tucker has produced a .200 BA, .800 SLG and .460 wOBA while striking out once.
Across those six appearances, Tucker has posted a 16.7 K% and Whiff%. When facing right-handed pitching this season, Tucker's splits have jumped to a .275 BA, .491 SLG and .850 OPS.