MLB PrizePicks Props, Plays: 5 Picks, Including Javier Baez, Pete Alonso and Tyler Anderson (Tuesday, September 6)
Cole Burston/Getty Images. Pictured: Javier Baez
- With 15 games on Tuesday's slate, how should you go about building the ideal PrizePicks lineup?
- There are several appealing options, including a fade of the Tigers and buying a few Mets hitters.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the top PrizePicks props options from tonight in Major League Baseball.
Tuesday’s MLB slate features 15 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Riley Greene Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
While Mayers is coming off a brutal outing against the Yankees, this is a great matchup for him to turn it back around. Through his last four appearances against the Tigers, he has collected two wins while throwing five scoreless innings.
Those four games were all relief appearances, but I think he could see sustained success against a poor Detroit lineup. The first Tigers hitter we are fading is Riley Greene.
Going under this total in five of his last six games (83%), we should expect his poor performances at the dish to continue. When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Greene possesses a .246 BA, .392 SLG and .704 OPS.
His metrics are also nothing special, posting a .308 xwOBA, .243 xBA and .387 xSLG. Greene has never seen Mayers on the mound before, so it may take a few times through the order to figure him out.
Javier Baez Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
The other Detroit hitter we are fading in this contest is Javier Baez. He has gone under this total in five of his last seven games (71%), capped off by an 0-for-3 performance Monday night with three strikeouts.
It has been an extremely tough season for Baez, who possesses a .228 BA, .368 SLG and .639 OPS. His metrics are even worse, posting a .279 xwOBA, .225 xBA and .362 xSLG.
We should not expect anything different in this matchup as he struggles mightily against right-handed pitching. This year, Baez’s numbers drop to a dreadful .205/.327/.583 slash line when facing right-handers.
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
Through 25 appearances this season, Keller is 4-10 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Even if Keller has a decent outing, he is followed by a struggling bullpen.
Since August 1, the Pirates’ relief pitching ranks just 23rd in the league in ERA, 23rd in WHIP and 17th in FIP.
We have an opportunity to buy low on Pete Alonso following two straight hitless games. When facing right-handed pitchers this season, Alonso boasts a .275 BA, .521 SLG and .858 OPS.
His excellent metrics suggest that regression should not be a concern, posting a .353 xwOBA, .263 xBA and .487 xSLG.
Francisco Lindor Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7
The other Mets hitter we are backing in this game is Francisco Lindor. Clearly seeing Keller well, Lindor has walked in all three plate appearances against him in his career.
There should be optimism that his plate vision leads to further success in this outing. When facing right-handed pitching this season, Lindor’s numbers jump by about 14% to a .272/.453/.807 slash line.
Like Alonso, we should not expect anything to change based on his metrics. This year, Lindor boasts a .331 xwOBA and .420 xSLG.
Tyler Anderson Over 4 Strikeouts
We should expect another strong start from Tyler Anderson against the Giants tonight after he has racked up four or more strikeouts in eight of his last 11 starts. Over his last six starts against San Francisco, Anderson is 2-1 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Across those six outings, he has gone over four strikeouts five times (83%). Since August 1, the Giants rank just 23rd in the league in K% when facing left-handed pitchers.
Looking at San Francisco’s projected starting lineup for tonight, they only have two hitters who have a season K% south of 21% (Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada).