We have an all-day Major League Baseball slate on tap for Wednesday, September 2.
Our staff of expert MLB bettors has put together a few favorite wagers, including picks for Padres vs Reds (12:40 PM ET, Great American Ballpark), Athletics vs Rangers (2:35 PM ET, Globe Life Field), and Brewers vs Cubs (7:40 PM ET, Wrigley Field).
Read on for our 3 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:40 PM | |
  | 2:35 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ryan Minion's Padres vs Reds Best Bets
By Ryan Minion
This afternoon’s matchup between the Reds and Padres seems to offer a favorable spot for San Diego’s red-hot lineup.
Right-hander Casey Mize will take the mound for the Padres after getting traded from Detroit at the deadline.
Mize has been largely impressive this season with a 3.45 ERA and a very efficient 1.10 WHIP.
While Mize appears to be settling in quite nicely with San Diego, the Reds’ lefty Brandon Williamson will look to bounce back on Wednesday from what has been a nightmare season.
Williamson heads into this contest posting a dreadful 6.11 ERA and an equally bad 1.64 WHIP.
Given Williamson’s atrocious form, I anticipate Padres’ slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. having another monster performance at the plate.
The Padres’ superstar appears to have found his groove at the plate after posting the worst half-season of baseball in his career.
Since the All-Star break, Tatis Jr has been on an absolute tear, batting .302 with 12 home runs and 32 RBIs, and I fully expect his reign of dominance to continue through Wednesday afternoon’s contest.
In addition to Tatis having previously found success versus the Reds’ veteran — having gone 1-for-2 with a double and an RBI – he demolishes left-handed pitching, which should give him a definitive edge against Williamson.
Tatis carries a .482 xSLG and 92.8 mph average exit velocity into this matchup, and should feast on Williamson’s significant vulnerability to heavy damage against right-handed power hitters like Tatis Jr.
Picks:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 HRR (-102)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run (+310)
- Padres Moneyline (-149)
| | |
Derek Carty's Athletics vs Rangers Best Bet
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 4.86 strikeouts for Jacob Lopez compared to 5.65 strikeouts implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 64% of the time, resulting in a 27% ROI.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $27.24.
This play is good down to at least -137.
Pick: Jacob Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-137 or Better)
| | |
Tanner McGrath's Brewers vs Cubs Best Bet
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Under in this matchup.
As you can see by using BARTOLO — our new PRO baseball betting tool giving PRO subscribers access to all the live data we use to project games each day — we project under 7.5 runs for this matchup, while the total still sits around 8.5 at most books.
Related Articles
There are three main parts to this handicap.
The first is that the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, thus increasing the run-scoring environment by nearly 12%. This has boosted the total, but the books have likely over-adjusted.
The second is that Jacob Misiorowski is on the mound. He's so good that it almost doesn't matter if he's pitching in a hurricane at 10,000 feet of altitude. He'll keep the talented Chicago lineup in check, even one that's hit the most home runs in the majors this year (196).
The final part is that the wind doesn't really help the Brewers, given they don't hit a lot of home runs. In fact, Milwaukee's lineup has hit the fewest home runs of any MLB squad this year (129). That wind adjustment helps the Brew Crew less than almost any MLB team.
It also helps that David Peterson keeps the ball on the ground a lot (50%), so he doesn't allow many long balls (.95 HR/9 allowed).
Ultimately, people are always going to want to bet Wrigley Field overs when the wind is blowing out, but these weather conditions don't help these two lineups out as much as you'd expect.
Scoring should be held to a minimum at Wrigley today.
Pick: Under 8 (-110 or Better)
| | |
