Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, September 2.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run
- Padres Moneyline
- Royals vs Marlins — NRFI
- Royals vs Marlins — F5 Under 4.5 Runs
- Brewers -1.5
- Brewers -0.5 F5
- Jackson Chourio 2+ TB
- Yankees Moneyline
- Yankees vs Angels — NRFI
Padres vs Reds Picks
This afternoon’s matchup between the Reds and Padres seems to offer a favorable spot for San Diego’s red-hot lineup.
Right-hander Casey Mize will take the mound for the Padres after getting traded from Detroit at the deadline.
Mize has been largely impressive this season with a 3.45 ERA and a very efficient 1.10 WHIP.
While Mize appears to be settling in quite nicely with San Diego, Reds’ lefty Brandon Williamson will look to bounce back on Wednesday from what has been a nightmare season.
Williamson heads into this contest posting a dreadful 6.11 ERA and an equally bad 1.64 WHIP.
Given Williamson’s atrocious form, I anticipate Padres’ slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. having another monster performance at the plate.
The Padres’ superstar appears to have found his groove at the plate after posting the worst half-season of baseball in his career.
Since the All-Star break, Tatis Jr has been on an absolute tear, batting .302 with 12 home runs and 32 RBIs, and I fully expect his reign of dominance to continue through Wednesday afternoon’s contest.
In addition to Tatis having previously found success versus the Reds’ veteran — having gone 1-for-2 with a double and an RBI – he demolishes left-handed pitching, which should give him a definitive edge against Williamson.
Tatis carries a .482 xSLG and 92.8 mph average exit-velocity into this matchup, and should feast on Williamson’s significant vulnerability to heavy damage against right-handed power hitters like Tatis Jr.
Picks:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run
- Padres Moneyline
Marlins vs Royals Picks
In 24 starts, Marlins right-hander Eury Perez has been quite impressive, despite a sluggish start to the season.
Perez was a very highly-touted pitching prospect coming into the Major Leagues and is finally living up to the hype, currently posting a solid 3.44 ERA on the season.
He’s been remarkably efficient, posting a 1.13 WHIP on the season across his 130.2 innings.
Since the All-Star break, opposing hitters are batting just .179 versus Miami’s youngster and I fully expect his dominance to continue on Wednesday evening.
Like Perez, Royals’ lefty Noah Cameron had a very underwhelming first half of the season followed by a reign of dominance over the last six weeks.
Cameron has posted a 4-1 overall record since the All-Star break with a 2.35 ERA and an unbelievably efficient 0.86 WHIP.
Kansas City’s left-hander is one of the hottest pitchers in all of baseball right now, having recorded a quality start in six of his eight appearances post-All-Star break.
Both pitchers have been on fire as of late, and because of that, I think runs will come at a premium early on.
Picks:
- Royals vs Marlins — NRFI
- Royals vs Marlins — F5 Under 4.5 Runs
Brewers vs Cubs Picks
The Brewers will send out their unicorn ace, Jacob Misiorowski, who has quickly established himself as one of baseball’s budding stars.
Misiorowski currently ranks atop the Major Leagues in several pitching metrics, including ERA (1.73), WHIP (0.75) and strikeouts (222 Ks).
He boasts a dynamic high-velocity pitching delivery built on elite lower-body mechanics, a massive stride, and exceptional extension.
Standing at 6-foot-7, Misiorowski utilizes his tremendous stride length to his advantage by achieving a rough 7.5-foot extension down the mound.
For a guy who routinely registers 102-105 mph velocity on his four-seam fastball, Misiorowski’s remarkable extension shortens the baseball’s travel distance, giving hitters a reaction time equivalent to a 108 mph fastball.
While Milwaukee's star hurler is borderline unhittable right now, Cubs’ veteran left-hander David Peterson has not had the same luck.
Peterson has recorded a 5.11 ERA, with a 1.52 WHIP, which could be a recipe for disaster, having to face the red-hot Brewers.
Given the Brew Crew’s significant edge on the mound heading into this game, I feel confident backing Milwaukee to cover both its first-five and full-game runlines.
I will also be looking to target Brewers’ superstar OF Jackson Chourio to have a massive night at the plate.
In eight previous at-bats against Peterson, Chourio has recorded three hits — one of which was a home run.
Picks:
- Brewers -1.5
- Brewers -0.5 F5
- Jackson Chourio 2+ TB
Yankees vs Angels Picks
Yankees’ ace Cam Schlittler will take the mound looking to build upon what has been a phenomenal second season pitching in the Major Leagues.
In 28 appearances, New York’s young right-hander has been phenomenal, ranking amongst the best starting pitchers in all of baseball in several statistical categories- 2.09 ERA (3rd), 0.97 WHIP (4th) and 201 Ks (6th).
Like Schlittler, Angels’ left-hander Reid Detmers has been very impressive as well, which should make for a thrilling pitching duel in Wednesday evening’s American League clash.
While Detmers had a rocky start to this season, he has caught fire recently and has undoubtedly been one of baseball’s top arms after the All-Star break.
Detmers has recorded a 1.55 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over his last eight appearances, fanning 51 hitters in the process.
Given how impressive both starters have been over the last couple of months, this is another spot I feel confident backing for there to be no runs scored in the first inning.
Though, despite how hot Detmers has been, this is a spot I'm definitely interested in betting the Yankees moneyline as well.
New York’s lineup is starting to find its groove at the plate, having just put up 16 runs and nine runs in consecutive victories over baseball’s hottest team — the Boston Red Sox.
I expect the Yankees to prevail in what should be a very closely contested matchup on Wednesday night.
Picks:
- Yankees Moneyline
- Yankees vs Angels — NRFI
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, September 2
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 2.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ Home Run
- Padres Moneyline
- Royals vs Marlins — NRFI
- Royals vs Marlins — F5 Under 4.5 Runs
- Brewers -1.5
- Brewers -0.5 F5
- Jackson Chourio 2+ TB
- Yankees Moneyline
- Yankees vs Angels — NRFI
