MLB Same-Game Parlay for Today: How to Bet Mets vs Athletics (Friday, September 23)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor #12 of the New York Mets.
- The New York Mets start the weekend with a matchup in the Bay Area against the Oakland A's Friday night.
- The Mets are in a tight race for the NL East division and every game is critical for them down the stretch.
- Doug Ziefel details his three-leg same game parlay bet for tonight's matchup.
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics Odds
|New York Mets
|9:40 pm ET
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
First, is Chris Bassitt's return to Oakland. The Mets acquired Bassitt in a trade just before the season started, and he has been excellent since dawning the orange and blue. Second, and most importantly, the Mets are in playoff mode. They need to win every game possible if they want to take the National League East crown.
They enter tonight's matchup with a 1.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves, and with Oakland being one of the worst teams in baseball, New York should be motivated to make a statement in this opener.
With that being said, let's go through how to get the most bang for your buck as we back the Mets tonight.
The Parlay (+320):
- Chris Bassitt 5+ Strikeouts
- Francisco Lindor 2+ Total Bases
- New York Mets -1.5
Same-Game Parlay – New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics
Chris Bassitt 5+ Strikeouts (-180)
While this looks like an alternate number, it is actually no different than Bassitt's listed strikeout total for this outing. This total is almost insultingly low for Bassitt in a matchup like this. He has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in 64.3% of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -180 that he will go over again.
However, that is before you add in the fact that Oakland is one of the most strikeout-prone lineups in the league. The A's enter this matchup with the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors. So if we get five solid innings out of Bassitt, he should easily reach five strikeouts.
Francisco Lindor 2+ Total Bases (+100)
I mentioned in the open that these two clubs have not met in Oakland since 2017, which means there is a significant amount of unfamiliarity between these lineups. However, even though unfamiliarity typically favors the pitchers, I still like one Mets matchup in particular.
Star shortstop Francisco Lindor has been red hot over his last seven games, hitting .323 with a .957 OPS. Tonight, the switch hitter will take most of his at-bats from his natural and more powerful side.
Lindor has hit lefties with authority this season. Yes, his average and wOBA are a few points lower than against righties, but one number that jumps out is his ISO. His ISO of .199 is 22 points higher than against right-handers. His hard contact rate is also a full percent higher from the right side of the plate this year.
Then when you look at Oakland starter Cole Irvin, his slugging percentage allowed is 71 points higher against righties, and there is a similar gap in his hard-hit rates. Righties have a hard-hit rate of 36.1%, which is high compared to his 19.3% rate against lefties.
So given how well Lindor has been swinging the bat and Irvin's deficiencies against righties, I like him, Frankie, to be right in the middle of the run production tonight.
New York Mets -1.5 (-125)
Last but not least, this all ties into the Mets taking this ball game by multiple runs. Not only will Francisco Lindor be in a plus matchup, but a large majority of the Mets lineup will be right-handed tonight. We already went over how drastic Irvin's splits are. What is overarching is that he's due for some sizable regression as the season comes to a close here.
Irvin has been a pleasant surprise for the A's, but the reality is that he overachieved this season. His FIP of 4.14 and xERA of 4.38 tell a more accurate story filled with a great deal of hard contact and much more traffic on the bases.
Irvin has a 7.23 ERA and 1.39 WHIP through three starts in September. Yet he has won two of those three starts. The regression is coming tonight, and the Mets will deliver it in a big way.