MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Braves-Padres, 2 Other Friday Games
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Keuchel
- Sharp action has hit Friday's MLB slate on three games in particular, capped off with Braves-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Our tools also reveal pro money landing on Twins-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Reds-Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET).
After getting just a taste of the return to baseball betting last night, the slate returns in full swing Friday night, as all 30 teams will be in play for the first time since Sunday. And just as casual bettors have been waiting for the unofficial second half of the season to get underway, so too have sharps.
Professional money has already hit a few games on Friday’s slate, with three in particular getting the brunt of the action.
>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians
7:10 p.m ET | Kyle Gibson (8-4, 4.09 ERA) vs. Mike Clevinger (2-2, 4.44 ERA)
The Indians sit 5.5 games behind first-place Minnesota, but opened as -120 favorites tonight, even without an edge in the pitching matchup (per this year’s stats, at least).
Cleveland has won six straight and 16 of its last 21, which makes this a tougher decision for the public. In fact, bettors are split just about down the middle on this moneyline, with 52% taking the Twins (accounting for 59% of dollars).
Despite that, Cleveland has risen substantially from its opening number in the market, and is now listed at a consensus -139. Given the even breakdown of bets, a 20-cent move — or more in some cases — is a good indication that sharps are probably at play.
Sports Insights Bet Signals confirm that proposition.
Two signals in the form of steam moves have hit the Indians, revealing two instances of market-wide line movement caused by sharp action.
Sharp angle: Indians (moved from -120 to -139)
Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET | Sonny Gray (5-5, 3.59 ERA) vs. Jon Gray (9-6, 3.92 ERA)
Bettors aren’t completely sure which Gray to back in tonight’s Gray-off in Colorado. The moneyline hasn’t budged as the Rockies have generated a slight majority of bets, but the Reds have seen a small majority of dollars.
What has been clear is that bettors expect both Grays to be able to keep this game under 12 runs.
Tonight’s board features a few double-digit totals — with this Coors Field matchup boasting the highest — which often means the public will go against its usual “over” trend and take the under. That’s exactly the case here, as only 28% of bets thus far have landed on the over.
Initially, the heavy support for the under dropped this line from its opener of 12.5. Most books fell to a flat 12, while some made it all the way down to 11.5. In either case, sharps felt that was too much of an overreaction and were happy to take a deflated over.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals have revealed three instances of sharp action on the over, one of which hit at the low mark of 11.5. That professional money has caused any 11.5s to jump back to 12, and some shops are now listing that over 12 at a higher-than-standard price (-115 to -120).
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 12.5 to 12)
Atlanta Braves @ San Diego Padres
10:10 p.m. ET | Dallas Keuchel (2-2, 3.60 ERA) vs. Dinelson Lamet (0-1, 5.40 ERA)
The Braves are 54-37, sitting atop the NL East standings, and will be playing behind their new arm — and a familiar name to baseball bettors — in Dallas Keuchel.
The Padres are an even .500 and will toss out Dinelson Lamet, in what will be just his second start since 2017 (Tommy John surgery).
But a game that seems like it should see a lean toward the Braves is actually listed as a pick’em in the betting market. In fact, some books list the Padres as slight favorites. That wasn’t always the case, as Atlanta opened around -115.
So what caused the move toward the even number?
Let’s start with what didn’t cause the line move. That would be the betting public, which has been all over the Braves since this game opened. Getting 84% of bets, Atlanta is the most popular play on tonight’s board.
Instead, it’s been sharp bettors driving this line toward the unpopular side. Four SI Bet Signals have been triggered on San Diego (at lines ranging from +106 to +102) to bring both teams into minus-money territory.
Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +106 to -104)