MLB Sharp Report: Pros Fading the Public to Find Value Sunday
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty
- Public money is hitting the MLB market today before the start of the All-Star break.
- As a result, sharp bettors are finding plenty of value by taking advantage of recreational bettors.
- Here are three MLB games getting hit by professional action.
The MLB All-Star break begins Monday, meaning today is the last full slate of games for bettors to jump on until the regular season resumes toward the end of next week.
Because of this, recreational bettors are taking the opportunity to flood today’s MLB games before the lay off, providing sharps a great opportunity to leverage this public action for value … and that’s exactly what they’re doing.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
1:07 p.m. ET | Asher Wojciechowski (0-1, 6.75 ERA) vs. Trent Thornton (2-6, 5.18 ERA)
Look at this pitching matchup. Woof.
According to The Action Network’s public betting data, 80% of bets have landed on the over, which isn’t surprising given those sparkling ERAs.
However, professionals think this number is too high and have instead come in hard on the under.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, which track and report sharp betting action in real-time, have triggered two Reverse Line Moves and one Steam Move on the under, explaining why this total has dropped from 11 to 10.5 despite the large majority of bettors hitting the over.
Sharp angle: Under (11 to 10.5)
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox
2:10 p.m. ET | Kyle Hendricks (7-6, 3.45 ERA) vs. Ivan Nova (3-7, 5.92 ERA)
The betting action on this total is almost the exact opposite of Orioles-Blue Jays.
The majority of bettors (57% at the time of writing) are on the under, while 76% of actual money wagered has come down on the over. This tell us that the bigger bets are backing the over and, as always, oddsmakers are following the money.
This total has moved from a consensus of 10 to 10.5 and, according to Bet Signals, it’s not just big bets moving the line, it’s also money coming from respected bettors.
Two Reverse Line Moves have already triggered on over 10, giving oddsmakers no other choice but to kick this number up to 10.5.
Sharp angle: Over (10 to 10.5)
St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
4:05 p.m. ET | Jack Flaherty (4-5, 4.90 ERA) vs. Jeff Samardzija (5-7, 4.32 ERA)
For the third straight game, we have massive sharp and public disagreement on a total. Seventy-one percent of tickets are on the over, but 55% of money has taken the under.
While it’s not huge majority of dollars on the under, that action has come from professionals as Bet Signals lit up two Reverse Line Moves and two Steam Moves on the under.
Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers have followed the sharps by making a major adjustment to this total.
Sharp angle: Under (9 to 8)