MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Phillies-Braves, 2 Other Tuesday Games
Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dansby Swanson (7) and center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13)
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Tuesday night, headlined by Phillies-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Brewers-Reds (7:10 p.m. ET) and Indians-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
It was a sad day in baseball yesterday, as Angels starting pitcher Tyler Skaggs tragically passed away, leading to the cancellation of the Los Angeles-Texas game.
On the diamond, overs continued to dominate Monday night (4-0-1). According to our Bet Labs database, overs are now 618-579 (51.6%) on the season. Blindly betting $100 on the over in every game would have won bettors $1,513 since Opening Day.
>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Milwaukee Brewers (46-39) at Cincinnati Reds (38-44)
7:10 p.m. ET | Chase Anderson (4-2, 4.42 ERA) vs. Tanner Roark (5-6, 3.36 ERA)
Milwaukee rallied late to beat Cincinnati 8-6 in last night’s series opener, handing over 10.5 bettors a sweaty win (the score was 3-1 Reds after six innings).
Casual bettors don’t know which way to go with tonight’s over/under, but wiseguys have taken a clear position.
This NL Central total opened at 10. Bets are virtually split right down the middle (53% on the over), yet we’ve seen the total rise to 10.5. This half-run move is meaningful because, in a vacuum, a total shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are relatively even (aside from a slight juice adjustment of a cent or two).
So what caused the total to rise?
Big over money from respected pro bettors, of course.
The over is receiving only 53% of bets but 70% of dollars and we’ve also tracked a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the over 10. This influx of sharp action caused the line to rise up to 10.5. We did see some buyback on the under 10.5, so sharps are telling you that the key number is 10 when it comes to betting the over.
Mother Nature is providing a big edge to over bettors in this one. The wind is blowing out to center at 7 mph and it will be a steamy 85-90 degrees at Great American Ballpark, great conditions for wiseguys sweating another high-scoring game.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 10 to 10.5)
Philadelphia Phillies (44-40) at Atlanta Braves (50-35)
7:20 p.m. ET | Aaron Nola (6-2, 4.22 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (1-1, 5.06 ERA)
Sharps (professional bettors with an edge) and squares (casual public bettors who bet for fun) appear to be in unison when it comes to this NL East over/under.
Despite a high total with two big-name starting pitchers going head to head, the public sees the juiced-ball over renaissance continuing to cash on a nightly basis and says, “give me the over.”
Wiseguys are right there with them.
This over/under opened at 9.5. Currently 64% of bets are taking the over, but they also account for a whopping 95% of dollars. This massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy is a clear indication of moderate public support for the over but also heavy smart money from respected bettors.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed pro bettors get down hard on the over 9.5, triggering a big steam move that forced oddsmakers to adjust the total up to 10 across the market.
So far this season, overs that rise a half run have won at a 54.6% rate, winning 23.32 units with a 7.9% ROI. High-total overs have also cashed bigly this season, as totals of 10 or more have gone over 56.3% of the time (+22.28 units, 10.4% ROI).
An added bonus for over backers: the wind is blowing out to straightaway center at 7 mph, hopefully turning warning-track fly ball outs into first-row home runs.
Sharp angle: Over (moved from 9.5 to 10)
Cleveland Indians (45-38) at Kansas City Royals (29-56)
8:15 p.m. ET | Trevor Bauer (6-6, 3.71 ERA) vs. Jake Junis (4-7, 5.23 ERA)
This AL Central over/under is almost a carbon copy of the Phillies-Braves total.
The line opened at 9 with even -110 juice on both sides. Currently 59% of bets are taking the over, indicating a slight public lean. But the over is also receiving 89% of dollars, signaling heavy dime wagers ($1000) banking on ten combined runs or more.
Goodfellas hammered the over 9 two different times, triggering a pair of steam moves that caused the juice to be adjusted up to -115 or -120 depending on the sportsbook. In other words, books are forcing bettors to pay a more expensive price in order to sweat the over because that’s the side they have liability on.
Just like in Atlanta, the wind is blowing out to centerfield at 6-8 mph.
As my trusted colleague and weather expert Mark Gallant noted, it will be a toasty 83 degrees at Kauffman Stadium tonight. Historically, hot weather has provided an edge to the over.
Sharp angle: Over (9)