MLB Friday Weather: Warm, Windy Conditions Highlight the Slate

MLB Friday Weather: Warm, Windy Conditions Highlight the Slate article feature image
Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: J.A. Happ.

  • Hot temperatures can be found across most of the country on Friday, which is leading to some lofty totals on the baseball slate.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we've identified how over/unders are being impacted for Padres-Cubs (2:20 p.m. ET), Rockies-Yankees (7:05), Royals-Indians (7:10) and more.

I don’t care where you live — your better have a working air conditioner this weekend. Perhaps one of those big metal floor fans will work, too. Seemingly everywhere across the nation will be dealing with extreme heat this weekend, and today’s baseball slate is feeling the impact.

With high temps come high totals. Oddsmakers are expecting runs to come pouring in today as much as sweat will be pouring out of the fans in the stands.

Here are the games that are seeing the best hitting conditions:

Highest Weather Ratings

  • Padres-Cubs: 91 (highest we’ve tracked at Wrigley)
  • Athletics-Twins: 84
  • Royals-Indians: 83 (highest we’ve tracked at Progressive)
  • Blue Jays-Tigers: 82 
  • Rockies-Yankees: 79
  • Phillies-Pirates: 79
  • Red Sox-Orioles: 77
  • Cardinals-Reds: 77

Would you look at that. We’re out here breaking records today, folks.

Nearly half of today’s games feature well above-average hitting conditions, led by the day game at Chicago. The Weather Rating of 91 would top Wrigley’s previous record of 90, which was set last year in a Twins-Cubs game. That game had an average temp of 91 degrees with 13 mph winds blowing to left. Today’s game will be 94 degrees with 12 mph winds blowing out to center.

Yeah, Jon Lester hit a 3-run oppo jack. That game last year closed at 12, which is what today’s opened at. It went up to 12.5 less than 15 minutes after opening.

Plenty more sultry conditions will be left for the night slate, led by A’s-Twins and a potential record-breaker at Progressive Field. Last night, the Weather Rating of 80 was one short of the Cleveland record of 81, but it looks like today’s may break it. Four homers were hit last night and the game snuck over thanks to a run in the bottom of the 8th.

With Boyd and Bauer pitching last night, the total was just 8.5. However, with Mike Montgomery (limited to 35-45 pitches) and Shane Bieber on the hill tonight, the over/under is at 9.5 and is on its way to 10 at some books thanks to some sharp action on the over.

Detroit is right up there as well, but likely won’t be topping the Comerica Field high-water mark of 88. One thing to note about that game is that Marcus Stroman, consistently towards the top of the league in ground-ball rate and second-highest this season, is pitching for Toronto. These hot temps aren’t going to help the ball soar over the fence if its hit on the ground, and Stroman is one of the best at limiting fly balls. Perhaps with that in mind, this total has actually dropped from 10 to 9.5.

At Yankee Stadium, temps ranging from 92 to 86 degrees along with a 7-9 mph breeze blowing out to left have resulted in an O/U of 11 (o-120). Historically, the best wind for overs at Yankee Stadium is blowing out to left field, which has a 56% win rate per Bet Labs.

All three of the remaining games have totals of 10, but the under in the Cards-Reds game is easily the most popular of the bunch. More than 70% of early bets caused the total to drop from 10.5 to 10. However, at 14-7-1, Great American Ball Park is one of the best ballparks at which to take the over when the temperature is at least 90 degrees.

One final note: John Means of the Orioles has a 46.9% fly ball rate, which is the eighth-highest of 160 pitchers with 50+ innings. With 90+ degree temps and a 6-7 mph wind blowing out to center, he could be in for trouble against the Red Sox.

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