MLB Tuesday Weather: A Ballpark Better Than Wrigley?

MLB Tuesday Weather: A Ballpark Better Than Wrigley? article feature image
Credit:

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Trevor Bauer.

  • Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how weather is impacting the Diamondbacks-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Reds-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) games.

Following Monday’s nine-game slate, today is loaded with 16 MLB matchups, including a doubleheader in New York between the Mets and Yankees.

Sixteen games means at least a couple are bound to be affected by notable whether conditions, and that’s exactly what we’re expecting to see in Philadelphia and Cleveland.

Diamondbacks (J. Duplantier) at Phillies (J. Arrieta)

7:05 p.m.
Weather Rating: 35

First on the docket is the battle between the old bull and the young calf, as wily bearded veteran Jake Arrieta hosts the rookie Jon Duplantier. While it may not be known for it, Citizens Bank Park is sort of like a mini Wrigley Field.

Everyone knows this simple equaton: Wrigley + wind = cash. Not many folks know that Citizens Bank Park + wind = cash, too. I mean … the park is named after a bank, what did you expect?

Here’s a little comparison for you with historical data via Bet Labs:

Wind-in unders

  • Wrigley: 106-76-12 (58.6%)
  • Citizens Bank: 45-29-3 (60.8%)

Wind-out overs

  • Wrigley: 78-46-4 (62.9%)
  • Citizens Bank: 124-80-12 (60.8%)

Gasp! If you bet on all of these games, you’d actually have won a bit more money from the Citizens Bank Park wind trends. I think the oddsmakers need to start posting these over/unders on the morning of game day if you ask me.

Of course I am mentioning these trends because the wind is blowing in tonight in Philly. The over/under remains at the opening number of 9, but the juice has actually inched up to o-125 at some books.

I will wait and see if the total goes up to 9.5, but will be looking at the under even if it doesn’t.

Reds (L. Castillo) at Indians (T. Bauer)

7:10 p.m.

Weather Rating: 28

We have a potential pitcher’s duel on our hands in Cleveland. Last year’s breakout stud, Trevor Bauer, will be hosting this year’s breakout stud, Luis Castillo.

Only problem with the Bauer of 2019 is that he’s walking one more batter per nine, bringing his BB/9 very close to 4, and allowing nearly three times as many homers, as his HR/9 has gone from 0.46 to 1.28.

Castillo has also had troubles with walks, but he’s managed to cut his HR/9 down from 1.49 to 0.71 thanks to a groundball rate approaching 60%.

Though the winds aren’t blowing in at 9 mph like they are in Philly, they’re certainly not going to help out hitters. Expect a light swirling breeze rolling in off Erie.

The weather looks pretty nice on paper, but the nice, comfortable high pressure system actually doesn’t help out the flight of a baseball as one might expect. The Weather Rating of 28 is the lowest of the day.