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Marky’s Monday Forecast: Favorable Pitching Weather in Cy Young Duel

Aug 20, 2018 10:30 AM EDT
  • Monday's Cleveland Indians-Boston Red Sox game (7:10 p.m. ET) has a Weather Rating of 27, the lowest of the slate.
  • The weather conditions across the country will be low as a whole, with no Weather Rating topping 55.
  • Just two games have slight chances of rain this evening.

The end of the year is slowly approaching, and seasons are a changing. This morning, I took about a five-mile stroll in the woods.

Even though I knew I was unlikely to see any interesting wildlife, I just wanted to breathe in the crisp, cool air … and boost my steps on FitBit (my family has a bit of a competition going).

The peak weather for offense is likely behind us, and we’ll slowly see more and more Weather Ratings closer to zero than 100. That’s certainly the case tonight, as no game will hit 60.

 

Our Weather Rating distills the hitter-friendliness for a particular game into one number. It is a proprietary Fantasy Labs model and is shown on a scale of 0 to 100. The Weather Rating does not account for potential rainouts; rather, it simply examines all relevant atmospheric conditions (temperature, altitude, wind speed, humidity, and so on) to determine how batted-ball distance will be impacted.

Highest Weather Ratings

  • Braves at Pirates: 56
  • Cardinals at Dodgers: 55
  • White Sox at Twins: 51

A few games are over the median threshold, but not by much. The Braves-Pirates game is the highest of the bunch, but bettors have made note of the wind blowing in as the over/under has dropped from 8 to 7.5 since opening.

The opposite is the case in Los Angeles, where the Cardinals-Dodgers over/under has risen from 8 to 8.5. They have a slight breeze blowing out, which is generally the case, and temperatures in the mid-70s.

Lowest Weather Ratings

  • Indians at Red Sox: 27
  • Giants at Mets: 36
  • Rangers at Athletics: 40

The low end of the spectrum is much more interesting tonight. In Boston, Corey Kluber takes on Rick Porcello in a battle between the last two AL Cy Young winners.

Now, I am aware that Porcello is pitching nowhere near a Cy Young level right now, but still.

That aforementioned woods weather I was talking about is located about 30 miles north of Boston, and the air at the park tonight will have a September feel to it.

In addition, the wind will be blowing in. With that said, the majority of bets and dollars are on the under and the total has dropped from 8.5 to 8.


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New York will be a bit warmer, and the wind is blowing from right to left, but pitchers will still have the edge in this one. Over/under bets are split, but 80% of money on the under has pushed the number from 8 to 7.5.

Rain

A couple of games have shots at a brief shower or two, but this is about as safe as a day can be in late August.

  • White Sox at Twins
  • Braves at Pirates
Credit:

Rick Porcello. Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

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@marky_money

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