The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on July 7, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on TBS.
The Rays are favored by -122 on the moneyline and by -206 on the run line. The Yankees are +101 on the moneyline and +168 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays Picks: J. Aranda 1+ Hit & P. Goldschmidt 1+ Hit
My Yankees vs Rays best bet is a prop parlay on Jonathan Aranda and Paul Goldschmidt to record at least one hit each. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -206 | 8 -110o / -109u | +101 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8 -110o / -109u | -122 |
- Yankees vs Rays moneyline: Yankees +101, Rays -122
- Yankees vs Rays over/under: 8 (-110 / -109)
- Yankees vs Rays spread: Yankees +1.5 (-206), Rays -1.5 (+168)
Yankees vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| RHP Will Warren (NYY) | Stat | LHP Ian Seymour (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3 | W-L | 5-1 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.73 / 4.06 | ERA / xERA | 4.02 / 3.34 |
| 3.57 / 3.82 | FIP / xFIP | 4.11 / 4.26 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 17.0% |
| 43.1% | GB% | 30.5% |
| .311 | BABIP | .232 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 105 | Location+ | 99 |
Yankees vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
It's a relatively big mid-season series here as the top two teams in the AL East square off. The Yankees made a statement last night with a clean 5-1 win behind their ace Cam Schlittler. Now they'll turn to Will Warren to try to get a 2-0 lead in the series and it's a pretty real pitching downgrade for the pinstripes.
Warren's given up at least two runs in five straight starts and has his ERA up to 3.63 after a very good start to the season. He has a 23.4% K%, 7.5% BB%, and 1.01 HR/9 this year — in many ways, he's about a league-average pitcher.
He has the one flaw that we have to right about every time: left-handed batters. He strikes out 28% of righties and allows a .299 xwOBA. Against lefties, it's a 20% K% with a .323 xwOBA allowed — this difference is mostly due to his poor changeup and the lack of a curveball. He's throwing a bunch of four-seamers and sinkers to lefties (60% usage between the two), and those pitches just aren't good enough to work when the left-handed batter gets an early look at them out of the hand.
The Rays have a roster where they can stack up seven lefties at times, at least that's what they're projected to do tonight. Of course, Junior Caminero is right-handed and isn't coming out of the lineup, so it's a good spot for Warren in that the opponent's best hitter isn't left-handed, but there are a ton of high-contact "pesky" left-handed hitters he will have to deal with around Junior.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
Ian Seymour has been an emerging part of the Rays rotation. Over his last 25 innings since getting into the bulk/starter role, Seymour has a 2.52 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP, allowing a max of three earned runs in a given outing. He has worked his pitch count up into the 80s recently, hitting 90 pitches as a season high two starts ago.
He throws a lot of slow stuff. His changeup is thrown 31% of the time and the next most common pitch is the sweeper at 23%, but he does have a decent fastball (23% usage) that has had some success this year (.311 xwOBA allowed) despite it not having a ton of velo 91.6mph). Seymour is an old-school pitcher — he throws pretty soft, mixes it up, and keeps you off balance with off-speed stuff and a funky delivery.
Yankees vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
The best matchups for hitters are for Jonathan Aranda and Paul Goldschmidt. Warren's stuff plays right into Aranda's talent, and Goldy has just been crushing lefties all year. Seymour should clear 5-6 innings in this one, so Goldy can get three looks at him.
I'm not really into betting on these pitchers. If I had to, I'd take Will Warren Under 5.5 Strikeouts, just because the Rays make so much contact and can stack seven lefties in there.
But I'd like the Aranda + Goldschmidt one-hit parlay. Or you could build on that and go to over 1.5 total bases or over 1.5 H+R+RBI, whatever your fancy. But I think it's too good a matchup for these two hitters to run away from.
Pick: Aranda 1+ Hit, Goldschmidt 1+ Hit, Parlay on DK for -115
