Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, August 24.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Twins -1.5 (+100)
- Cade Cavalli Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
- George Klassen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+131)
- Reds Moneyline (-160)
- Cubs/Diamondbacks Over 9 (-112)
- Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+133)
Twins vs Athletics Picks
More games in Sacramento coming this week. 217 home runs have been hit there this year. The second-most in a single park is Washington at 196. That's a huge gap. Sutter Health Park is truly a launching pad.
The lines adjust to account for it, of course. But it still gives up some chances for some high-upside home run bets and parlays.
Jeffrey Springs is the starter for the A's. At home this year, he has a 6.46 ERA with 2.5 HR/9. It's about as good as it gets for Twins righties tonight. Here are the home run lines for the main guys:
- Byron Buxton +201
- Royce Lewis +303
- Ryan Jeffers +396
- Josh Bell +423
- Brooks Lee +499
- Luke Keaschall +600
The Twins lineup projects to have eight righties and one lefty (Kody Clemens). I think they're going to hit a few dingers tonight.
So pick your best option; my recommendation, given the price, would probably be Bell +423 or Jeffers +396.
Zebby Matthewson the other side is a massive fly ball pitcher, so he's in some danger here. The good news for him is that the Athletics basically have a minor league lineup right now, which reduces some of the positive effects of this ballpark.
I'm all over the Twins to score a bunch of runs and win this game.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+100)
Rockies vs Nationals Picks
Cade Cavalli has recently remade himself as a pitcher. He's thrown fewer four-seamers but has raised the velo and shape of those fastballs, and he's leaned more into his great curveball. All of this started around July 28th. He's made five starts since then:
- 32 IP, 1.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 28.7% K%, 6.6% BB%
He's been one of the best in the game. He has struck out 21 hitters in his last two starts (10 Cubs, 11 Rangers). Now he gets the matchup with the "Road Rockies", a lineup with a 24% K% and .703 OPS on the road this year. This lineup is also currently without their best hitter, Hunter Goodman.
The books are going to like this matchup, so the values won't be screaming. But I'm seeing over 6.5 strikeouts for around even money.
After two starts above nine, I'm feeling pretty good about that given Cavalli's retooled arsenal.
Pick: Cade Cavalli Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
Guardians vs Angels Picks
One more of the more interesting stories in baseball lately is the one where the Angels fired their whole pitching staff on August 11th and replaced them with more data-focused people.
Since the day after those firings, the Angels have a 1.94 team ERA with a 0.93 WHIP. Maybe that's a coincidence; I doubt it was that simple, but it sure is interesting timing, isn't it?
One upgrade they've made to the staff is giving George Klassen a role. He's back on the bump tonight after two very successful outings with this new staff.
8/12 vs. TEX: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 5 SO, 1 BB
8/18 vs. HOU: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7 SO, 3 BB
He has a 24.5% K% and 8.2% BB% in those two starts. More importantly, he's posted a super-elite 17.9% SwStr% and a 34% Ball%. That ball rate matters because his lack of strikes was the only thing truly holding him back. His stuff is awesome, and through two starts, this new pitching staff has helped him find command.
The line we're getting on Klassen's strikeouts shocks me. Over 4.5 for +131.
Pick: George Klassen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+131)
Reds vs Giants Picks
Not a very interesting series here in the Bay Area. But it's Chase Burns on the hill trying to lower his already pristine 2.51 ERA this year in one of the best matchups you can find in baseball. The Giants have a .696 OPS at home. They do not do much scoring there.
And the Reds aren't letting up on Burns' workload. He threw 104 pitches last time and struck out eight Cardinals. He should be in this game a good long time.
The question for the Reds is if they can score some runs in AT&T Park. This park is one of the tougher ones to hit in, but it does match the Reds' style decently well since they're not a high fly ball hitting team.
The bigger point to make is that Carson Whisenhunt, the Giants starter, has just a 15% K% with a 13% BB% this year. That's 23 strikeouts and 20 walks. He's a disaster on the mound, and the Giants bullpen isn't much help behind him.
The Reds are the biggest favorite on my projection model. The projections think they can score 5+ runs even in this park given this juicy matchup, and Burns doesn't need much help to get them to a win.
So I'm drinking the juice on the Reds moneyline tonight.
Pick: Reds Moneyline (-160)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Picks
Cubs fans haven't been encouraged by what they've gotten from Kevin Gausman since the trade. He's given up 11 runs in his three starts and has failed to complete five innings in his last two. The Diamondbacks lineup is still without Ketel Marte, but they still project as a tough lineup to be efficient against.
And it's Merrill Kelly on the Arizona side, a guy with a 5.27 SIERA this year. Kelly's given up 26 homers this year, the fifth-most in baseball, and he's up against the lineup with the fourth-most homers in baseball this year.
There should be some offense in this one. The matchups are bad for both pitchers, and my projections don't favor either of them. The Cubs are #3 in projected runs for me, and the D'Backs are #7. So I'm taking the over 9 runs here easily.
Pick: Over 9 (-112)
Phillies vs Mariners Picks
Things have gone terribly in the Mariners rotation lately. Bryan Woo is hurt, Bryce Miller has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and George Kirby has been getting blown up frequently. The one guy they have who has been steadily productive is Logan Gilbert.
Gilbert holds a 3.35 ERA this year with a 1.01 WHIP on a 26.4% K% and a 6.2% BB%. At home, he has a 28.2% K%. Some home run issues at home (1.9 HR/9) have him with a higher ERA there, but the strikeouts pile up without much issue.
And that's a good thing to have against the Phillies. They have some power threats, of course, but you can get strikeouts against them. Kyle Schwarber is on his way to setting a new MLB high in strikeouts this year.
The Mariners bullpen has been taxed lately by the lack of good innings from the rotation, so they're going to be leaning on their 6'6" righty to get them through the rest of this season. It's a very high strikeout floor for Gilbert, and I like betting on his side tonight.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+133)
Top Home Run Projections
Before I go, I'll give you my model's top ten home run projections and top ten strikeout projections for the night.
- Byron Buxton 0.36
- Sal Stewart 0.31
- Kyle Schwarber 0.29
- Junior Caminero 0.26
- Esmerlyn Valdez 0.25
- Colson Montgomery 0.56
- Munetaka Murakami 0.24
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 0.23
- Kody Clemens 0.22
- Elly De La Cruz 0.22
Top Strikeout Projections
- Zack Wheeler 8.5
- Parker Messick 7.9
- Chase Burns 6.4
- Logan Gilbert 6.3
- Drew Rasmussen 5.8
- Ranger Suarez 5.5
- Cade Cavalli 5.4
- Braxton Ashcraft 5.1
- Robbie Ray 5.1
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, August 24
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Twins -1.5 (+100)
- Cade Cavalli Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
- George Klassen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+131)
- Reds Moneyline (-160)
- Cubs/Diamondbacks Over 9 (-112)
- Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+133)
