MLB Odds, Preview, Prediction Padres vs. Athletics: Can Oakland Get to Blake Snell Early? (Tuesday, August 3)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Padres pitcher Blake Snell.
- Blake Snell has struggled on the road all season and gets another away start this Tuesday.
- MLB betting analyst Mike Ianniello explains how he’s factoring Snell’s struggles into betting Padres-A’s.
- Find Ianniello’s full preview of the matchup below, complete with a pick on the first five innings.
Padres vs. Athletics Odds
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
Both the San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics currently sit in wild-card position, as they each are in the same division as the best team in their respective leagues.
Neither team has been closing the gap on the division lead over the last few weeks, with both squads spinning in neutral at the moment. Since the All-Star break, both the Padres and Athletics are just 8-7.
They split a pair of games in San Diego last week and now will shift up north for two games in Oakland.
Road Problems For Padres
San Diego will send 2018 Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell (LHP) to the mound on Tuesday — only Snell has not exactly looked like a Cy Young Winner in his first season with the Padres. In 19 starts this season, Snell is just 4-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 5.60 xERA. He ranks in the bottom 12% of the league in xwOBA and xERA.
The most glaring thing about Snell’s season has been his drastic home and away splits. At home this year, Snell is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA in eight starts with opponents batting .195 against him. But in 11 starts on the road, he is just 1-3 with an 8.02 ERA and is allowing a .302 batting average against.
Snell has struggled with his command all season. He has a career-worst 5.87 BB/9, the second-worst mark in the league. He has allowed at least three walks in five straight games and 12 of his 19 starts. His control issues have led to quicker exits in games, lasting six innings just three times all year.
Superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. is on the injured list for the third time as he reinjured his shoulder yet again. There is still plenty of talent in this lineup with Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer and the Padres added MLB hits leader Adam Frazier at the deadline.
The Padres are 12th in the league in wOBA and 10th in wRC+. Over the last two weeks they are 22nd in wOBA and wRC+
A’s Benefitting From Additions
The Athletics have quietly gotten a strong season from Sean Manaea (LHP) this year. He is 8-6 with a 3.01 ERA and 3.19 FIP. Since the start of June, his ERA is just 2.18 and teams are batting .196 against him.
The biggest improvement for Manaea this season has been the jump of his strikeout rate from 7.50 K/9 last season to 10.05 K/9 this year. He throws just three pitches — a sinker 58.8% of the time, a changeup and a curveball — that have all been good this year.
After getting super hot in June, Oakland’s offense sputtered a bit during July. The A’s finished the month with only the Texas Rangers scoring fewer runs. They ranked 29th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+.
Oakland went out and tried to bolster its lineup at the deadline by trading for former All-Star Starling Marte from Miami, as well as Yan Gomes and Josh Harrison from Washington. The moves have already given the team a boost. In the first game with all three in the lineup on Sunday, Gomes hit a home run and tallied three RBIs, Harrison got a hit, and Marte went 3-for-4 with three stolen bases.
We just saw this same matchup six days ago, and Oakland came away with a 10-4 win in San Diego. Despite being much better at home, Snell got lit up for seven runs in just four innings. He walked four batters and managed just one strikeout.
Manaea, on the other hand, looked terrific, allowing no runs and just one hit in six innings while striking out nine batters. Now the Padres lose Tatis, while the A’s add Marte, Harrison and Gomes.
The Padres offense has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, ranking just 19th wRC+ against southpaws, whereas Oakland sits 9th.
When Snell has struggled this season, it has been early and often. He has a 7.23 ERA in the first inning and has an ERA over 5.00 in the second, third, fourth and fifth innings. The Athletics jumped on him a week ago and I expect them do the same again here.
I think the best value here is to bet Oakland to lead after Five Innings (-0.5) at anything -135 or better.
Pick: Oakland Athletics -0.5 First Five (-130)