Padres vs Blue Jays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, July 18
Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove (Padres)
Padres vs. Blue Jays Odds
-102 / -120
|Blue Jays Odds|
-102 / -120
The San Diego Padres have been one of the biggest disappointments to this point in the season. They entered this campaign with plenty of World Series aspirations due to their loaded roster.
That talent has yet to show up in the win column, though, as they're third in the NL West and eight games back in the wild-card race.
However, their window is still open. They've been playing better of late, and their +36 run differential shows they're due for some wins.
Standing in the way of their bounce-back tonight will be the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays are a team that's really begun to hit their stride, as they're 8-2 over their last 10 games and are sitting in the second wild-card spot.
So, what's the best way to bet on this series-opening matchup between the Padres and the Blue Jays? Let's take a closer look to find out.
The biggest reason why the Padres have underperformed this season is because they're not getting the contributions from the back half of their lineup that helped spur their postseason run last season.
Only Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham and Manny Machado have above-average hard-hit rates and average exit velocities.
The rest of the lineup — including big free agent signing Xander Bogaerts — hasn't shown much consistency. However, the track record of many players in this lineup points to better production moving forward, and we could see that begin tonight as they face Alek Manoah.
We know that Manoah struggled mightily to begin the year and has since been sent down and recalled to help him find his form from his rookie season.
His first start back in the majors made the Blue Jays' brass look brilliant, as Manoah put forth a strong performance.
That outing did come against the Tigers, though, with a lineup far inferior to the one he'll face tonight.
On top of the matchup, one concern from his debut outing is that he still had a 40% hard-hit rate and only one of his six hard hits allowed came on the ground.
While I expect Manoah to be decent moving forward, it's unlikely he'll repeat that success against a Padres lineup that'll make him pay and is beginning to perform under the urgency of the standings.
Toronto has begun gaining ground in the AL East, as its lineup has hit its stride. The Jays are beginning to make loads of loud contact and are now fourth in xBA. They're top-10 in hard-hit and barrel rates.
While this Toronto team is a good investment in the futures market, for this matchup it may have some trouble through the first five.
Joe Musgrove has been a tough guy to square up against this season, as he ranks in the 92nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed.
He's also due to be even better than his 3.29 ERA shows; his xERA is 3.07. Musgrove is the guy to combat this hard-hitting Jays lineup due to his ability to miss barrels while challenging them.
This Toronto lineup hasn't seen him much; the only one with any history is Brandon Belt, and he has a xBA of .263 against him. Expect Musgrove to look great the first time through the order and set the tone, as he should also get some early run support.
Padres vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
If you like star power, this is the matchup for you. These lineups are loaded with big bats, and while all of them can certainly succeed, it's clear which side has the edge on the hill.
One outing is not enough to declare Manoah is back in form, and this Padres lineup can punish him for any mistakes he makes.
On the other side, Musgrove has been tremendous at minimizing mistakes and will contain the Blue Jays' lineup.
Back the Padres to be up halfway through this one.
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