Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Sean Paul has that job for Wednesday, August 26.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Tigers ML (-116)
- Guardians ML (-134)
- Cubs/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-115)
Rays vs Tigers Picks
Nothing is better than Wednesday morning and afternoon baseball. So, get your cup of coffee ready as I discuss three strong plays on Wednesday's slate on the Leadoff.
The Rays' pitching lab has turned countless pitchers into absolute gems.
Sadly for them, that magic hasn't carried over for former All-Star Freddy Peralta. In four starts with Tampa Bay, Peralta owns a 7.17 ERA with a 6.17 xERA and 5.76 FIP.
A major concern is that Peralta's K/9 is down to 6.75 in those outings — and his K/9 already dipped from his career average during his time with the Mets.
The Tigers offense should be looking their chops to face Peralta. They've been an elite offense lately, ranking fourth with a 112 wRC+ over their last 29 games.
Despite the struggles from Riley Greene and Dillon Dingler in that span, the Tigers have remained elite. Once their two All-Star bats get back on track, they'll get even scarier.
Opposing Peralta is a pitcher I feel comfortable backing in Troy Melton.
Can you expect Melton to maintain his 1.60 ERA? Doubtful, as his 3.22 xERA and 3.84 FIP point to impending regression. But Melton throws hard while generating a lot of soft contact and swings and misses.
Take the Tigers here. Peralta is close to an auto-fade in every outing, and this Tigers offense should score enough to even out some of Melton's potential regression.
Picks: Tigers ML (-116)
Guardians vs Angels Picks
The Angels are a total train wreck. After blowing a 5-0 lead on Tuesday, the Halos have the odds stacked against them on Wednesday, with the Guardians sitting as -144 favorites. I think that line is light with all the edges the Guardians have.
On the mound for the Guardians is left-hander Joey Cantillo, who has a 3.73 ERA with a 3.91 xERA and 3.87 FIP. For Cantillo, much of his success revolves around players chasing his curveball. He throws a big, looping 12-6 curve over 30% of the time — leading to his 9.94 K/9 and dicey 4.35 BB/9.
Anaheim will chase Cantillo's curveball plenty, as it has a horrid plate approach, running a 7% walk rate (29th) and a 25% strikeout rate (28th) since July 20th.
Throwing for the Angels is former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez, who can only hang on that status for so long. He's been a wreck this year, posting a 6.41 ERA with a 5.77 xERA and 4.81 FIP.
Rodriguez has a career-worst 8.32 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, and 1.36 HR/9. For a pitcher coming off arm injuries, having career-worst numbers in those categories is less than ideal.
This Guardians lineup should fare well against Rodriguez. They rank 21st in the league with a 92 wRC+ in their last 28 games.
Cleveland might lack power, but it punches out just 18% of the time — which should force Rodriguez to throw more pitches. And once he turns it over to the bullpen, the Guardians could pour it on.
Picks: Guardians ML (-134)
Cubs vs Diamondbacks Picks
In the final game of the lead-off, let's talk about a game that screams runs.
The Diamondbacks and Cubs have a pair of aging lefties on the mound. For Arizona, it's Eduardo Rodriguez, and for the Cubs, it's Matthew Boyd.
Rodriguez earned his first All-Star nod this year, and he's maintained a strong 2.60 ERA. However, his underlying numbers are worrisome, as he's running a 4.60 xERA and a 3.79 FIP.
Between injuries and inconsistent play, Boyd has been decent but not great for Chicago. He still has a 4.15 ERA, but his 5.01 xERA and 4.68 FIP make me feel like he's a ticking time bomb.
Moreover, these are two of the more potent offensive teams in the league. Since August 1st, the Cubs currently lead the league in wRC+ and home runs, with Alex Bregman and Pete Crow-Armstrong combining for 20 homers.
Arizona is no slouch, either, ranking eighth in wRC+ in that span. It's been a balanced effort from the top to the bottom of the order. Corbin Carroll leads the team with a 132 wRC+, but even Ryan Waldschmidt and Tim Tawa have provided positive value in the batter's box.
I expect an onslaught of runs here with these two terrific offenses and older pitchers on the verge of regression. I'm rolling with the over.
Picks: Over 8.5 (-115)
Paul's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, August 26
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Tigers ML (-116)
- Guardians ML (-134)
- Cubs/Diamondbacks Over 8.5 (-115)
