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MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Dodgers: Why There’s Value on San Diego

MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Dodgers: Why There’s Value on San Diego article feature image

Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove.

  • The San Diego Padres take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in a West Coast MLB showdown on Thursday.
  • The Dodgers lead the NL West, while the Padres sit just 1.5 games behind.
  • Kenny Ducey dishes out his best bet for Thursday's divisional showdown below.

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds

Padres Odds+155
Dodgers Odds-135
Over/Under8 (-110 / -110)
Time10:10 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

A rivalry is renewed in Los Angeles on Thursday night when the Padres and Dodgers meet yet again. While the faces have changed and San Diego is still without its biggest star, the pitching matchup could offer hope for the Padres.

What’s the best way to bet this tantalizing matchup? Let’s get into it.

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Padres Looking for Offense

San Diego is very much a team in limbo at the moment.

The Padres have made it all the way to the doorstep of first place in the NL West, sitting just 1.5 games back of the Dodgers, but they’ve hardly done anything to earn their position.

The Padres have won just twice in the last six games, and they come in with seven losses in their last 12. Over the last two weeks, San Diego ranks just 13th in wRC+, though there are some promising signs.

It’s hardly striking out at just 19.8% of the time, and along the same lines, it sits ninth in contact rate. While there’s little else to report on the contact front that will inspire confidence with some mediocre quality-of-contact numbers, the Padres are walking in a strong 9.3% of plate appearances.

Joe Musgrove will give it a go here for the Padres, and he’s been excellent this season with a 2.12 ERA and 2.83 xERA. He’s pitched to a .342 xwOBA on contact, which is near the best of his career. His walk rate is also near a career-low at 5.4%.

With all this said, he had the worst start of his career last time out against the Phillies, giving up six runs.

Dodgers Need to Capitalize

The Dodgers are in a bit of a funk of their own, losing three of the last five games, including two in Colorado. Any time a team walks away from Coors Field with 12 runs in three games, it has to consider that performance a disappointment.

So, in spite of the fourth-ranked wRC+ in the last two weeks, it’s hard to get excited about L.A. right now.

The Dodgers haven’t really been posting the same at-bats, either. They’ve been known for being the kings of the free pass for years now, but they come into this one with a 7.9% walk rate over the past 14 days and a high 23.6% strikeout rate.

However, they’re still fifth in hard-hit rate and just outside the top five in barrel rate.

Now comes the not-so-fun part.

Mitch White will get the start for the Dodgers, and he simply isn’t working as a starter. I mean, he’s working, but he’s not exactly working out that well. He owns a 3.98 ERA in his five starts, and his peripherals are nightmarish.

In his 29 2/3 innings of work this year, White has pitched to a dreaded .415 xwOBA on contact, and while he has struck out 24% of the batters he’s faced, he’s also walked a middling 8%. Any good that has come along with his strikeouts has been canceled out.

Padres-Dodgers Pick

It’s not like I’m very high on the Padres offense, but I simply don’t think White is all that good. The numbers and the eye test would tell you that.

Musgrove is a far more trustworthy pitcher given what we’ve covered, and I’m not ready to write him off after one bad outing soiled a long run of incredible starts.

He’s still generating swings and misses and limiting walks — two things that have plagued L.A. lately.

Pick: Padres ML +135

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