MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Giants: Fade Sean Manaea Against Strong San Francisco Lineup

MLB Odds & Picks for Padres vs. Giants: Fade Sean Manaea Against Strong San Francisco Lineup article feature image

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Crawford.

  • The Giants are favored tonight against the Padres, who seemingly have the superior arm on the mound.
  • Sean Manaea will start for San Diego against Jakob Junis, who has been decent so far in 2022.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Padres vs. Giants Odds

Padres Odds+105
Giants Odds-125
Time10:15 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Padres continue to win, emerging victorious in four of their last six to move to 24-14 on the season. One team they failed to get the best of is the Giants, who they fell to twice in a three-game set earlier this year.

They'll try to exact some revenge here this weekend in San Francisco, but will they pick up the win on Friday? Let's get into where the value lies in the first game of three.

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Padres Pitching Powering Winning Ways

For all the winning the Padres have done, it should be said their offense has been rather mediocre. San Diego ranks 17th in the league with a wRC+ of 96 and a .127 Isolated Power which sits 23rd. They're dead last in barrels per plate appearance and 19th in hard-hit balls per swing.

If you'd like to keep going, we can. The Padres have the sixth-worst expected wOBA according to Statcast and the fourth-worst expected batting average. The bottom line here is that San Diego is not really a very imposing side at the plate. Aside from Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, no one is consistently producing.

So, how are the Padres winning? Well, they're 10th in staff ERA which helps, but that's mainly due to the success of the starting rotation. They're down in 19th when it comes to bullpen ERA, posting a mark of 3.85.

Along the same lines, Sean Manaea has been one of San Diego's most important players and will get the ball on Friday. He's pitched to a 3.77 ERA this season with an even-better 3.33 xERA. He's on pace to have the best strikeout season of his career.

Giants Offense Should Back Junis

The Giants haven't had the same success on the bump, which runs counter to what we saw in 2021 out of this team. Instead, they have just stepped up to the plate and mashed.

San Francisco ranks seventh in offensive production this season with a 112 wRC+ and have one of the best walk rates in baseball at 10.2%. The Giants are eighth in expected batting average and expected wOBA and a respectable 13th in barrels per plate appearance.

The Giants have killed their opponents with contact, getting a piece of the ball on 76.8% of swings. Their offense powered a six game winning streak as we hit the second week of May, but the bats have gone a bit cold of late. San Francisco did take two of three from the Rockies, but those two wins were sandwiched by three losses.

Jakob Junis will be starting this one for the Giants, and that is probably a bad thing. The former Royals farmhand has been decent enough this year with a 1.74 ERA but his underlying numbers suggest he's maybe due for a bit of regression. Nothing is catastrophic; the righty has pitched to a .429 xwOBA on contact and a 45.6% hard-hit rate.

Junis owns a 4.37 xERA, though, which would indicate he's been a little fortunate to escape his starts without much issue. A near three-run gap in ERA and expected ERA may scare some off, but anywhere else you look you won't find scary numbers.

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Padres-Giants Pick

The one issue Manaea has had this year is with walks. Normally, the lefty has been able to keep things under control with a solid 6.1% career walk rate, but that number is up at 8% this season. The Giants are one of the best in the league at putting together good at-bats and getting on base. This could be a bit of an issue for Manaea.

I have to roll with the Giants here as the team I view as much better. They have a legitimate offense, and San Diego does not. There will be teams out there which will get to Junis in the coming weeks and months, but San Diego will not be one of them.

Pick: Giants -125

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