Padres vs. Rockies Odds, Preview, Prediction: Making Sense of Colorado’s Coors Field Success (Tuesday, August 17)
Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez
- The Colorado Rockies have dominated at home this season, so it's no wonder that their game against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night is a pick'em despite the gap between the two teams in the standings.
- German Marquez has been one of the league's best pitchers at home and Mike Ianniello thinks that there is value backing Marquez and the Rockies on Tuesday night.
Padres vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
Coors Field has been providing some mountain magic for the Rockies this season. We always expect offenses to thrive in Denver, but the thin air gives both team’s an equal advantage. Yet somehow the Rockies are a terrific 39-21 at home, and an abysmal 14-45 on the road this season.
Colorado has been the worst team in the league on the road, and has the second-best record at home this year. Thin air isn’t enough to explain the super powers the Rockies suddenly gain when they enter Coors Field.
San Diego was expected to be one of the best teams in the league and began the season with the third-best odds to win the World Series. After getting off to a hot start, due to injuries and inconsistency, the Padres have really just been an average team over the last couple months.
Since the start of June, San Diego is 33-32 and they are just 18-20 since the start of July. The Padres now have just a 1.5-game lead over the Reds for the final wild card spot and per FanGraphs are projected at just 46.8% to make the playoffs.
There is no denying the Padres need to win more right now, but will that motivation be enough to overcome the Coors Field voodoo this year?
San Diego Padres
The San Diego pitching staff is dealing with a ton of injuries right now, as evident by the desperation signing of Jake Arrieta yesterday. Yu Darvish, Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet are missing from the rotation and Keone Kela, Dan Altavilla, Taylor Williams and Drew Pomeranz are all missing from the backend.
The Padres will have a tough task as they will go with a bullpen game for the second time in the last three games. On top of that, Ryan Weathers was pulled after just four innings yesterday. That means the San Diego relievers will be tasked with 23 innings over three days.
Matt Strahm will get the ball first on Tuesday in his first start since 2019. Strahm has made just five appearances this season after beginning the year on the injured list following knee surgery. Teams are batting .423 against him and he hasn't thrown more than 27 pitches in an outing.
Austin Adams and Daniel Hudson have each pitched two straight days, and Nabil Crismatt went two innings last night so all could be unavailable.
Expected to be one of the best offenses in baseball, the Padres have looked the part for stretches, but have been inconsistent. On the season as a whole they are 11th in wOBA and wRC+ but over the last 30 days they rank just 17th in wOBA and 19th in wRC+.
Obviously San Diego got a big boost to their lineup on Sunday with the return of star shortstop right fielder, Fernando Tatis Jr. All he has done is go 5-for-9 with two home runs, four runs and four RBIs in his two games since switching to the outfield.
The Rockies gave Germán Márquez (RHP) the ball on Opening Day for the second straight season and he has turned into a legitimate ace, earning his first All-Star selection this year. He has a 3.77 ERA this season, a number that would be even lower without an occasional blow-up outing. In 24 starts this year he has allowed two runs or fewer 15 times.
We know the thin air in Denver has always been a hitters’ paradise and a house of horrors for pitchers, yet Márquez has been dominant at Coors Field all season. The 26-year old is 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA at home this year and opponents are batting just .199. He has only allowed four home runs in 14 starts in Denver.
Thin air is less of a factor when the ball is on the ground. Márquez pounds the bottom of the strike zone to generate a 53.3% ground-ball rate, which is the fourth-best mark among qualified pitchers. He has kept the ball on the ground at 57.2% clip when at home this year.
We all know that the Rockies' offensive numbers get inflated at home, but never to this extent. On the road this year, Colorado ranks dead last in the league in batting average, wOBA and wRC+, by a fairly large margin. They average just 3.0 runs per game, the worst in the league. Well in the magical confines of Coors Field, they have been the best offense in the league, ranking first in batting average and wOBA. They lead the league with 5.9 runs per game at home this year.
Trevor Story, Yonathan Daza, Raimel Tapia, Garrett Hampson and C.J. Cron are all batting over .300 with an OPS above .800 at home this year. Cron has an OPS of 1.089 and has hit 16 home runs at Coors, including a walk-off blast last night.
Germán Márquez has become an auto bet anytime he is pitching at Coors Field this season. The Rockies ace has been the second most profitable pitcher at home, with an 11-3 moneyline record in his starts this year.
Being at Coors Field isn’t the only thing to like about Márquez in this spot. Despite him being much better at home, he has made two starts against the Padres this year, both in San Diego. He was dominant, going 2-0 with 1.38 ERA. He allowed just two runs and a .163 batting average over 13 innings.
Colorado’s offense has been the best in the league when they’re playing in Denver and despite the talent in the lineup, San Diego’s bats have just been league average over the last month.
I am not going to go against this Coors Field mojo, especially with their ace on the mound. I love the Rockies in this spot and would play them to -140.
Pick: Colorado Rockies -115 (Play to -140)