World Series Odds, Picks, Player Props for Phillies vs Astros Game 2
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Framber Valdez
- Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez face off on the mound in tonight's World Series Game 2 in Houston.
- Player props are increasingly popular, so how should you play these two starting pitchers tonight?
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of how to bet Wheeler and Valdez in tonight's matchup.
Phillies vs. Astros Game 2 Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||8:03 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The first game of the World Series gave us everything. It may be an act that is hard to follow, but we have yet another great pitching matchup here tonight.
However, Zack Wheeler and Framber Valdez may not find much more success than their teammates did. Let’s find out how I’m betting on the two starters tonight.
Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
Odds via bet365
Last night we saw Aaron Nola attack this Astros lineup with his curveball to generate swings and misses. It is clear that this Phillies staff has a clear game plan to limit fastball usage against this Houston lineup.
Nola wound up with seven called strikes+whiff on his fastball and curveball. However, the difference is that his curveball had a 42 percent whiff rate, while his fastball had an 11 percent whiff rate.
The Astros’ ability to crush fastball does not bode well for Wheeler. He threw his fastball 60 percent of the time this year. While he does try to tunnel his slider with the fastball, the combo did not create a very high whiff rate.
Despite the adjustment that was made by Nola last night, I find it hard to see Wheeler straying from his fastball. Look for the Astros to attack early in the count and rack up the hits tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 hits allowed (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 9
Framber Valdez Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-130)
Odds via DraftKings
The Phillies have this notion put on them that they are a bit more free-swinging than the average club, but that is not the case. They finished 17th in walk rate this season and have three guys in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins who boast well above average walk rates. Those three will likely be right in the middle of this play.
We know Valdez has impeccable stuff and that his main weapon is his curveball. Although his curveball is sharp, that it is not a strike a majority of the time. That did not matter in his last start, as the Yankees were swinging at everything, but Valdez did walk three against Seattle in the ALDS, and the numbers show there is value on this line when looking at his full sample size.
Valdez has walked at least two batters in 60.6 percent of his 33 starts this year. That gives us implied odds of -153 that he will go over again. After just his fourth start with allowing no walks, he is bound to regress here, and I’m confident the Phillies will be laying off the majority of curveball tonight.
Pick: Over 1.5 walks (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 7