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Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Nola Will Find Success at Citi Field

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Nola Will Find Success at Citi Field article feature image
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Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola

  • The Phillies are a short road underdog against the Mets on Friday night, as Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phils against Tylor Megill.
  • Doug Ziefel is backing the road team in this one, counting on Nola to continue his good form against the Mets.
  • Get our full Mets vs. Phillies pick and preview below.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

Phillies Odds +105
Mets Odds -125
Over/Under 7
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel, updated at 4 p.m. ET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The beasts of the NL East will kick off their second series of this campaign. The Mets have been scorching hot as they’ve won all five series to begin the year. While the Phillies are sitting at .500 entering this matchup, they showed just how fearsome their lineup can be as they are coming off of a four-game sweep over the Rockies.

They’ll be looking to carry that offensive momentum as their ace, Aaron Nola, will start for them in this one. Nola has gotten off to a solid start, although the Mets got to him a bit just two weeks ago as he allowed three runs over just three and one-third innings of work.

Nola will be opposed by Tylor “Big Drip” Megill, who took Jacob DeGrom’s spot in the rotation and has done his best impression of him this far. The young right-hander has pitched to a 2.35 ERA and already shut out these Phillies this season.

This opening matchup will set the tone for what could end up being a critical series in the long run. Will the streaking Mets stay hot, or will the Phillies’ rejuvenated lineup support Nola? Let’s dive in to find out.

Phillies Must Be Prepared for the Hard Stuff

Megill has been fantastic as he’s already done much more than what the Mets could have expected of him. Megill’s ability to use his fastball to both get ahead and put away hitters has been key so far this year. However, that high fastball usage (thrown 57 percent of the time) makes him predictable.

His high fastball usage will play right into the Phillies’ hands as the meat of their order has seen four-seamers very well this season. Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Jean Segura, and Bryce Harper all have positive run values against fastballs. J.T. Realmuto and Didi Grigoruious each have negative run values against fastballs but have expected batting averages over .320 on fastballs this season.

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Nola Will Continue to Dazzle the Mets

Playing with the Phillies for his entire career means that Nola has seen more than his fair share of the Mets over the years. Nola has faced the current Mets lineup 246 times, and his numbers are rather impressive over that span.

He’s held them to a .266 batting average and has a Strikeout Rate of 29.3 percent. While that BAA is not overly impressive, it is expected to be much lower. The Mets have only mustered an average Exit Velocity of 88.7 and an average Launch Angle of 5.7 degrees against Nola.

That lower quality of contact creates an expected average of just .243. The lack of extra-base hits allowed also stands out. In those 246 plate appearances, the Mets have just six doubles and one homer.

Now Nola’s numbers against the Mets may be impressive, but he has been excellent overall thus far in 2022. His off-speed pitch usage is up six percent from last season as he’s made more of an effort to utilize his sinker.

Additionally, his sinker usage has created much more soft contact as he’s in the top half of the league in Hard-Hit Rate. Consequently, all of his expected stats are phenomenal as his expected ERA, xwOBA, and xBA are all in the top 25 percent of qualified pitchers.

Phillies-Mets Pick

The Mets and Megill have gotten off to tremendous yet unsustainable starts. They are running into a loaded lineup that has seemingly awoken from its early season struggles, and they’ll be tasked with perhaps the best version of Nola we have seen since his Cy Young run in 2018.

Back the Phillies as very live dogs here at +106 on FanDuel.

Pick: Phillies +106 (Play to +100)

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