Phillies vs. Pirates MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target Game Total with Steady Starters on Mound (Saturday, July 30)

Phillies vs. Pirates MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Target Game Total with Steady Starters on Mound (Saturday, July 30) article feature image

Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Ranger Suarez

Phillies vs. Pirates Odds

Phillies Odds-160
Pirates Odds+135
Over/Under7.5 (-110 / -110)
Time7:15 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Ranger Suarez will take the mound for the Phillies as he looks to lead his team to another crucial win and further the push to secure an NL Wild Card.

The Pirates will counter with Mitch Keller, who has trended up of late and holds a respectable 4.55 ERA throughout 95 innings this season.

With both starters in steady form and the Pirates in poor awful form, could we find some value looking toward a total on this contest?

Philadelphia Phillies

Suarez entered this season with a lot of hype after a spectacular campaign in 2021, and a steady 3.84 ERA still seems like somewhat of a letdown.

Suarez has trended into elite form of late, however, and has pitched to a stellar 2.90 ERA over his past seven outings with a WHIP of 1.16.

Suarez's stuff has been elite, as well, and he has pitched to a 4.84 QOPA with plus ratings on each of his most commonly used pitches (sinker, changeup, fastball), and it seems likely Suarez's strong recent form should continue moving forward.

Offensively the Phillies have hit to considerably worse splits this season against right-handed pitching, with a 98 wRC+ and a .311 woba throughout 2629 ABs.

Philly has struck out 22.7% of the time versus righties, with a lowly 0.32 BB/K. There's obviously a lot of power in the lineup to help cover that flaw, but Philadelphia has consistently proven to be more of a breakeven lineup against righties, and a spectacular one versus lefties.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Over the past 30 days the Pirates' offense has struggled to an 83 wRC+ of and a .360 SLG rate, and striking out at an alarming 26.5% rate has been a big reason for those poor numbers.

The Pirates also hold notably poor splits against left-handed pitching this season, with an 83 wRC+ and a .286 woba.

The Pirates hold the third-worst xwoba (.292) in the league this season, and the talent currently featured in the lineup does not suggest an uptick is coming anytime soon.

Mitch Keller has put together a very respectable season, however, and holds a 3.51 ERA through his past 51.3 innings.

Keller's stuff rates well too, and he holds a 4.66 QOPA this season.

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Phillies-Pirates Pick

Suarez has been in strong form lately and should take advantage of a Pirates lineup that is in poor form and that has recently struck out at an alarming rate.

Keller has trended into more reasonable form recently, as well, and he could manage a solid outing against a Phillies lineup that has been far less potent against right-handed starters.

In turn the first 5 innings open with a relatively low line of 4, but I still see value backing the under down to a price of -120 considering the likelihood of success from each starter.

Depending on what prices you have at your disposal, Suarez to go over 5.5 strikeouts seems reasonable as well, and I'm sure it will be a popular play considering the Pirates' recent form.

Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4 -115 (play to -120)

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