Rangers vs Blue Jays Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Tuesday, September 12
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Rangers vs. Blue Jays Odds
The Texas Rangers continue to march toward the top of the AL West standings, pulling to within two games of the Houston Astros entering play on Tuesday.
With a win in their pocket, can they clinch this series by sending Max Scherzer to the hill?
Let's break it down in our Rangers vs. Blue Jays preview and prediction.
The Rangers may be just 11th in wRC+ over the last two weeks, but they're still an offense worth believing in here. Not only do they rank third against left-handed pitching this season, their numbers in the last 14 days aren't bad at all despite the lower wRC+.
Texas has put up a .198 isolated power in the last two weeks with an excellent 11.7% walk rate and a low 19.5% strikeout rate, and despite hitting .243 it has just a .264 BABIP.
We know teams normally will regress, either positively or negatively, to their season-long BABIP over time, and the Rangers are No. 1 in that category this year with a mark of .315. Even so, a .264 BABIP is significantly below the league average and the tides will certainly turn with great power and plate discipline numbers.
As for Scherzer, it's hard to say he's a liability. He did give up seven earned runs last start against the Astros, but around that he's been excellent for Texas. The veteran posted a season-best .164 xBA in August after coming over from the Mets, and his whiff and strikeout rates have seen a nice bump.
He's beginning to look like Scherzer again, and perhaps we should have expected that on account of his 3.28 xERA.
Let's jump across to the other side here and talk about Toronto's pitcher in this one, Hyun-Jin Ryu. After it appeared the aging veteran was on his last legs entering this year, he's come off the injured list and posted a sparkling 2.65 ERA in seven starts.
Now, that's merely a 34-inning sample, but so far there's no real cause for concern. The lefty's recorded a perfectly average .249 xBA with a 20.3% strikeout rate — up six points from last year — and a solid 5.8% walk rate which we've come to expect. He's allowed four home runs in his last three starts, however, but he's not really putting many runners on base to make it hurt.
As for Toronto's offense, it's finally woken up. The Jays are third in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a sky-high 13% walk rate, excellent 17.2% strikeout rate and best of all, a .289 batting average. An all-or-nothing lineup which has often times been coming up with nothing has found a way to hit the ball consistently.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Scherzer has been better since joining the Rangers, his walk issues have persisted and even gotten worse. He's also not a guy who will ever produce many ground balls and will be victimized by hard contact when he's not striking guys out.
That puts him in a dangerous spot against a Blue Jays team that has excelled in the three true outcomes, and one which ranks 11th in fastball run value entering play on Tuesday.
On the other side, while Ryu has looked like his old self for seven starts, he's still in an arduous spot here against a Rangers team that mashes lefties and should represent the best offense Ryu has had to face since returning from injury. Texas won't afford Ryu the strikeouts which have bailed him out at times this summer.
With that, I like the over. Both of these pitchers should struggle against two of the top offenses in the AL.
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