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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Red Sox vs. Angels: Value on Game Total Due to Starting Pitching Matchup

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Red Sox vs. Angels: Value on Game Total Due to Starting Pitching Matchup article feature image
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Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Jarren Duran (40) of the Boston Red Sox.

  • The reeling Los Angeles Angels (27-28) have now lost 11 consecutive games entering Monday night's matchup against the ascending Boston Red Sox (27-27).
  • Each team's win-loss record hovers around .500, but the Red Sox are riding tremendous momentum, winning 16 of their last 23 games.
  • Is either side of the point spread a safe bet on Monday night, or instead, should you look to the game total in a subpar pitching matchup?

Red Sox vs. Angels Odds

Red Sox Odds +100
Angels Odds -120
Over/Under 9 (-120 / +100)
Time 9:38 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Two teams heading in entirely opposite directions will meet Monday when the Los Angeles Angels host the Boston Red Sox at Angel Stadium.

The Angels enter in the midst of an 11-game losing streak and are now below .500 for the season. Los Angeles will send Noah Syndergaard to the mound hoping to find a much needed win.

The Red Sox have surged all the way back to .500, and have now surpassed the Angels for the final AL Wildcard spot. Boston will hand the ball to pitcher Michael Wacha, who has managed surprisingly-elite results — including a 2.43 ERA — through 40 1/3 innings.

Will Wacha’s excellent form continue on Monday?


Boston Red Sox

Since May 11, Boston has put up a 17-8 record and has fielded the most productive lineup in MLB with a 145 wRC+ and a .373 wOBA.

Obviously, this kind of ridiculous productivity is unsustainable over a larger sample size, but top-to-bottom this Red Sox lineup is starting to look really solid.

Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez provide a spectacular heart of the order, but the rest of the lineup has begun delivering far more productive at-bats.

Jarren Duran has been excellent through a tiny sample size of 14 plate appearances this season, hitting to a 133 wRC+. Duran had a strong game on Sunday and should remain in the lineup for tonight’s contest.

Red Sox pitcher Michael Wacha has been a very pleasant surprise: The 30-year old, soft-throwing righty has found a way to dial up considerably better results than we have seen in any of his previous three campaigns.

Wacha is likely due for some significant regression, however. His actual era sits 1.4 runs lower than his xERA of 3.83, and he has pitched to an ERA of 4.70 during his last three outings.

Wacha has shown off some tremendous command this season and had his fastball dialed-in against the Reds during his last time out. Still, it is difficult to imagine his less-lively stuff enabling him to summon such dominant results moving forward.


Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles’ powerhouse lineup may be without Anthony Rendon, Taylor Ward and David Fletcher, but LA still boasts a tough order that matches up well against Wacha.

During its last 20 games, Los Angeles has still hit to a 110 wRC+ and a .318 wOBA — and the Angels’ offensive play has been far from the team’s greatest concern.

When playing at home this season, the Angels have slugged to a fifth-best mark (.435) with a wRC+ of 119 — and I expect another strong outing Monday against Wacha.

However, the Angels bullpen has been treacherous of late, allowing an ERA of 6.04 during the last two weeks. Furthermore, Noah Syndergaard may not be likely to provide a deep start Monday.

Syndergaard has pitched to an xERA of 4.68 through 40 1/3 innings, and his actual results have tailed off considerably during his last six starts, in which he has managed an ERA of 5.22.

During the last 100 plate appearances that Wacha has faced, opponents’ xWOBA has skyrocketed. That is certainly not a good omen heading into this matchup against a scorching-hot Red Sox lineup.

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Red Sox vs. Angels Pick

Both Wacha and Syndergaard appear due for regression moving forward, and each pitcher is tasked with navigating through some very tough lineups on Monday night.

LA hopes to snap its dreadful losing streak against what should be a favorable matchup. Even short some key bats, the Angels should manage to get some runs in off of Wacha.

To see Syndergaard keep Boston’s red-hot lineup in check would also be surprising. Therefore, Monday’s game should be of the higher-scoring variety.

Boston would certainly be my lean as a side — particularly if you got the prices we saw at opening. Nonetheless, I see value backing the game total to go over 9 (+100) as well and would play that to -110.

A single-game parlay backing each team to score three runs is priced at -135. I feel that is also a safe play on this contest and could be another way to get some action in.

Pick: Over 9 (+100)

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