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Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Boston Early in the Bronx (Friday, July 15)

Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Boston Early in the Bronx (Friday, July 15) article feature image
Credit:

Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts #2 of the Boston Red Sox.

  • The Red Sox head to the Bronx to face the Yankees with both teams stumbling into the All-Star break.
  • The Yankees, who lost the back half of their four-game series against the Sox last weekend, enter as favorites at home (-170).
  • Doug Ziefel breaks down how where he sees value between the two division rivals.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds

Red Sox Odds +143
Yankees Odds -170
Over/Under 8
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The most storied rivalry in baseball is set to add another series to the record book as the Boston Red Sox head to the Bronx to begin a three-game set with the New York Yankees. Both clubs have been struggling of late: the Yankees enter this matchup losers in six of their past 10 games, and the Red Sox have lost eight of their previous 10, including four straight.

The Red Sox have the right guy back on the mound to stop the bleeding as Nathan Eovaldi makes his return from the injured list. We have not seen Eovaldi since early June, when he went down with lower back inflammation. Prior to his injury, Eovaldi was having a solid campaign as he went 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA through 12 starts.

Opposing Eovaldi will be Jordan Montgomery. His last outing came against the Red Sox in Boston and he was solid against them as he threw five innings of two-run ball and struck out four. However, seeing them in back-to-back starts may not work in his favor.

Let’s break down this AL East matchup and see where we can find value amongst these bitter rivals.

Expect Boston to Hit Montgomery Hard

The Red Sox’s scuffles are in line to end tonight as they face the lefty Montgomery. Boston has been exceptional against left-handed pitching this season — fourth in the majors in batting average, wOBA, wRC+, and OPS against lefties.

What makes those numbers even more impressive is that four of their most productive hitters are left-handed. Rafael Devers, Franchy Cordero, and Alex Verdugo all have above-average exit velocities and hard-hit rates on the season.

On top of their tremendous splits, the Red Sox’s righties should have no issue handling Montgomery. His FIP against right-handed hitters this season is 4.42, which is a significant bump up from his overall FIP of 3.79.

One of those righties is Xander Bogaerts, who has hit Montgomery very well in the past. Bogaerts is hitting .484 with two extra-base hits off him for his career, and he should add to those stats in this matchup.

Look for the Red Sox to strike early and often in this one.


Eovaldi Primed to Turn the Page

It is a tall task to have your first start in over a month come against this Yankees lineup. We all know how formidable the Bronx Bombers are, especially in their home ballpark. However, Eovaldi had success when he faced them at Yankee Stadium to start the season. Eovaldi threw five innings, allowed three runs, and struck out seven in that outing, but that outing barely put a dent in his career numbers against New York.

Overall, the current Yankees lineup has hit .295 off Eovaldi with an average exit velocity of 92.5 mph. Although, he may be catching the Yankees team at the right time. Since July 8, the Yankees are hitting just .258, and their strikeout rate is up nearly four percent in that span.

Their strikeouts have been up over the past week because they have been struggling with velocity. The Yankees have seen an average fastball velocity of 94 mph. Tonight against Eovaldi, they will see a fastball that sits at 97 mph. He has already shown he can overpower the Yankees, and given their recent struggles; he should do it again.

Red Sox-Yankees Pick

It’s tough to back a team that is 2-8 in their last 10 going on the road against the best team in baseball, but that’s precisely what I’m doing. Boston’s splits are bound to come to fruition against Montgomery. They may even benefit from being in Yankee Stadium as some of their long fly balls could wind up in the seats.

On the other side, Eovaldi is in a prime spot to thrive despite this being his first start back from injury. He will blow his fastball by a majority of the lineup and keep them off balance with his breaking stuff.

However, the one wrinkle to this handicap is that we don’t know how long Eovaldi will go and that the Yankees pen severely outmatches the Boston bullpen. So I’m backing the Sox to be up halfway through this one.

Pick: Boston F5 ML +140

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