Rockies vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Jacob deGrom’s Return (Tuesday, May 25)

Rockies vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Jacob deGrom’s Return (Tuesday, May 25) article feature image
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Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.

Rockies vs. Mets Odds

Rockies Odds +200
Mets Odds -250
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Monday evening and via BetMGM.

The Colorado Rockies took the first game of this series against the New York Mets by the score of 3-2 on Monday night.

The Rockies were led offensively by Ryan McMahon and Elias Diaz, each of whom contributed home runs. Garrett Hampson also delivered a big RBI triple in the fourth inning that proved to be the difference in the game.

The Mets, meanwhile, managed just four hits, including home runs from James McCann and Brandon Drury.

With ace Jacob deGrom on the mound for Tuesday’s game, the Rockies are going to have a tough road to make it two in a row at Citi Field. That said, do the current odds offer enough value on this one to warrant a bet tonight?

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Rockies Send First-Time Starter to the Mound

Kyle Freeland will make his first start of the season for the Rockies after missing nearly two months with a shoulder strain suffered back in spring training. While it wasn’t pretty, Freeland’s 2020 was an improvement over his performance in the prior season.

Over 70 2/3 innings in 2020, Freeland pitched to a 4.65 FIP, nearly a run-and-a-half better than his 5.99 FIP in 2019. He did, however, see his strikeout rate fall from a 6.81 K/9 average in 2019 to just 5.86 K/9 last year.

He’ll take on a Mets team that has been slightly below average against left-handed pitching so far this season, collectively hitting to a .304 wOBA over 345 plate appearances thus far.

Given it’s Freeland’s first start of the season, we likely won’t see Rockies manager Bud Black push Freeland too far. When Freeland exits, Black will be forced to turn the ball over to a Rockies bullpen that has been one of the worst units in baseball. Over 158 1/3 innings, they’ve combined for a 5.05 FIP thus far.

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deGrom Returns from IL for Mets

Jacob deGrom will take the hill for the Mets after missing his last two starts due to right side tightness. deGrom has been his typical, dominant self so far in 2021, compiling an astounding 1.08 FIP over his first 40 2/3 innings thus far. He’s also been striking out batters at an even higher clip that normal, amassing 14.63 K/9 this year, nearly a full strikeout more than his already-strong 13.76 K/9 rate from a season ago.

One major difference is an increase in fastball usage. After using the pitch just 44.9% in 2020, he’s boosted that figure up to 63.8% this year, while decreasing both his slider and changeup usage. It will be interesting to note if this usage pattern changes after the side tightness he experienced earlier in the month.

He’ll take on a Rockies team that has struggled so far this year against right-handed pitching to the tune of a .292 wOBA, the seventh-worst mark in all of baseball.

If deGrom can’t go his normal 6+ innings, the Mets will have their league-best bullpen to turn to. Over 143 2/3 innings so far, they’ve accrued a 3.17 FIP, the best in MLB so far this year.

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Rockies-Mets Pick

It’s clear that the Mets have a strong advantage in all aspects of this game, but the current odds — both in terms of the moneyline and the total — don’t offer much value at the current numbers.

The Mets will almost certainly have opportunities to take advantage of Freeland in his first outing of the season and potentially put up big offensive numbers. but their bats have been struggling of late, with the offense totaling just four runs over their last three games.

While I still fully expect the Mets to win, I’m not laying a bet on the current odds of -250 or above. If you’re looking for a cornerstone piece for a parlay, the Mets moneyline with deGrom on the mound is enticing. Otherwise, I’m staying away on this one.

Pick: Mets (-250, as a parlay piece only)

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