Saturday MLB Odds, Picks, Projections: How To Bet Braves-Brewers, Giants-Dodgers (Oct. 9)
Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Woodruff.
Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both futures and the individual games for that day.
I will also address how to handle betting these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
Let’s talk series prices before digging into Saturday’s two-game NLDS slate.
Series Moneyline Corner
Here are my updated series moneyline projections for the divisional round:
The Dodgers series chances dropped by 20% — from 62% to 42% — following their Game 1 loss to the Giants. I bet a half unit on their series moneyline before Game 1 (at -150) and would likely add another series share of the Dodgers at +150 or better before Game 2.
Milwaukee gained between 15-16% with their narrow 2-1 win over Atlanta. I wouldn’t take the Braves below +355 (23% implied) to win that series at this point.
You would need at least +733 to bet the White Sox series price and hope they can win three consecutive games.
The Red Sox are close to even with the Rays again (54% before Game 1), with two out of the remaining three games at Fenway Park. You can consider adding another share of Boston’s series price at +123 or better – though you missed the boat on the juicy +300 ticket before Game 2.
Braves vs. Brewers, Game 2 (5:07 p.m. ET)
While there isn’t any value in the series price, I show the Brewers as a -135 favorite for Game 2, with Brandon Woodruff (3.29 xERA, 3.05 xFIP, 3.31 SIERA) set to face Max Fried (3.49 xERA, 3.45 xFIP, 3.76 SIERA).
Fried found his groove down the stretch, pitching to a 1.74 ERA (3.08 xFIP) in 14 second-half starts. The lefty posted a 57% groundball rate over that span and ranked in the top 10% on the season for average exit velocity allowed.
Woodruff’s profile is just a touch more impressive than Fried’s. He has incredible stuff – ranking ninth in average fastball velocity (96.5 mph) amongst qualified starters – with four pitches (fastball, sinker, curveball, changeup) that rank as top 20 offerings amongst that group.
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) July 25, 2021
The curveball has been transformative for Woodruff. The righty has increased its usage to 16.1%, up by nearly 10% year-over-year and 15% since 2019. As of this season, the curve is now Woodruff’s most commonly used offspeed pitch.
One bit of concern: since the trade deadline, when they overhauled their outfield, the Braves have the top-ranked offense against curveballs and changeups. They do rank 21st against fastballs, however.
Given my more optimistic projection, I would bet Milwaukee up to -125 in either half of this game.
I would be very cautious with regards to the total, mainly if you are betting an over. Mike Estabrook (career 55.7% to the under) established a generous strike zone in Game 1, and Game 2 umpire Mike Muchlinski (career 53% to the under) will likely benefit this second pairing of All-Star caliber pitchers.
Dodgers vs. Giants, Game 2 (9:07 p.m. ET)
I mentioned on Thursday that the Dodgers would drop to 42% to win this rivalry series with a Game 1 loss, but that they would increase by 22% back to 64% if they split the road games in San Francisco.
As a result, I would undoubtedly look to bet the Dodgers series price at +150 (40% implied) or better before Game 2.
However, I don’t show any projected value on either the moneyline or the total, relative to current odds:
Consider a moneyline bet on the Dodgers at +105 or on the Giants at +113.
I would set those price targets at +108 and +110, respectively, for the first five innings (F5), in a relatively neutral pitching matchup between Julio Urias (3.12 xERA, 3.73 xFIP, 3.64 SIERA) and Kevin Gausman (3.49 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA).
As for betting the total, I would consider playing an under 7.5 or an over 7 at plus money. And I would need -105 or better to play the F5 over 3.5, or plus money to play an F5 under 4.
Plate umpire Angel Hernandez can be erratic, but his career splits are relatively neutral (254-253, or 50.1% to the Over).
Based upon the early odds and updated series prices as of Saturday night, I doubt that we’ll have an additional play on this contest or series before Game 2, but markets move quickly with a limited menu so make sure to stay tuned.
- Milwaukee Brewers (bet to -125, 1 unit)
- Milwaukee Brewers, First Five Innings (bet to -125, 0.5u)
- San Francisco Giants (bet to +112, 0.5u)
- Boston Red Sox Series Moneyline (value to +123)
- Los Angeles Dodgers Series Moneyline (value to +150)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (wait for +105)
- Los Angeles Dodgers, First Five Innings (wait for +108)
- San Francisco Giants, First Five Innings (wait for +110)
- Dodgers/Giants, Under 7.5 or Over 7 (wait for +100)
- Dodgers/Giants, F5 Under 4 (wait for +100) or F5 Over 3.5 (wait for -105)