Saturday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Strikeout Totals, Including Carlos Rodon (July 24)

Saturday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: 3 Strikeout Totals, Including Carlos Rodon (July 24) article feature image
Credit:

Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Carlos Rodón.

Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I am playing for Saturday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.


MLB Player Props & Picks

Jameson Taillon — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Yankees vs. Red Sox Red Sox (-170)
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

Jameson Taillon finally looks like he is rounding into form over his last couple of starts. In his last outing against these Red Sox, Taillon pitched into the sixth inning, allowing no runs and just four hits. In his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA.

Taillon’s home and road splits are a little concerning, as his 7.20 away ERA is much higher than his 3.26 home ERA this season. However, his last two road starts went well, allowing two runs over six innings in Houston and one run in seven innings in Seattle.

Despite his drop-off in production on the road, his strikeout numbers haven’t changed too dramatically. He averages 5.0 strikeouts per start at home and 4.9 in away games.

The Yankees desperately need a win in Boston today, and with the bullpen’s struggles recently will likely be more inclined to let Taillon work himself out of jams and later into the ballgame.

Action Labs Grade: 8/10

José Berríos — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+144)

Twins vs. Angels Twins (-126)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
Best Line FanDuel

The Twins ace has been having a solid season with a 7-4 record and a 3.69 ERA and 3.64 FIP. José Berríos has been the subject to trade rumors and could find himself on a new team by month’s end. The looming trade deadline could be weighing on him as he has struggled in his last two starts, but his strikeout numbers have still be solid.

Berríos has a 9.58 K/9 rate this season with almost half of his strikeouts coming via the curveball. He has racked up 26 strikeouts in his last three starts. In 19 starts this season, he has reached this total in 10 of them.

When Berríos faced the Angels earlier this season, he lasted just five innings after allowing three runs on three hits, but still had seven strikeouts. He is averaging 7.8 strikeouts per start at home this season, and I like him to reach this total today.

Action Labs Grade: 8/10

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Carlos Rodón — Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+110)

White Sox vs. Brewers Brewers (-130)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
Best Line DraftKings

If you like offense, this might not be the series for you this weekend. For me, there is nothing better than a low-scoring pitcher’s duel and you couldn’t ask for a better one today. All-Stars and Cy Young candidates Carlos Rodón and Corbin Burnes will square off in a heavy weight matchup. This is a game you want to have action on in some form, and what should be a pitcher’s duel, I want to back one of these studs.

I would honestly support playing both Burnes and Rodón’s strikeout over here, but I will just focus on Rodón. The 28-year old has seemingly blossomed out of nowhere, after an 8.22 ERA last season, he entered this season with a 4.14 career ERA and sub-.500 record in six seasons.

In 16 starts this year, Rodón sits with a 2.14 ERA and 2.20 FIP, ranking fifth best in the league in ERA, just ahead of Burnes. The biggest place Rodón has improved this year has been swing-and-misses.

Entering the season with an 8.80 K/9 rate, Rodón has jumped that to 13.03 this season. His slider has been lights out this season, generating a 55.7 K% and heling him rate in the top 4% of the league in K%, xBA, xwOBA and xERA this season.

Rodón has averaged 8.75 strikeouts per start this season and will face a Brewers team that strikes out the sixth most in the league. In what should be one of the best pitching matchups we will see all season, let’s root for some punch outs.

Action Labs Grade: 7/10

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