Saturday MLB Player Props: 2 Picks, Including Dodgers’ Max Muncy (May 7)
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Max Muncy (Dodgers)
This Saturday’s slate is glorious, as we have 17 games on tap. However, we need to pick our spots with props.
I’ve pinpointed two guys who are in line for solid performances.
First, we’ll highlight a Dodger who is due to bust out, and then we’ll close it out with a crafty lefty against a young, free-swinging lineup.
So without further ado, let’s dive into the best prop bets for today’s slate.
Max Muncy Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+120)
|Dodgers vs. Cubs||Dodgers -235|
|First Pitch||1:05 p.m. ET|
Max Muncy has gotten off to a dreadful start at the plate. He’ll enter this game with a .151 batting average and just three homers. However, he’s in an excellent spot to break out of his slump today.
Muncy and the Dodgers are slated to face Cubs lefty Drew Smyly. To his credit, Smyly has been excellent at limiting solid contact, as he’s in the top-five percent of the league in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed.
Smyly has also been a nightmare for left-handed hitters, as his career BAA is nearly 40 points lower than against righties.
Muncy is one of the rare lefties with career reverse splits. Muncy’s average is 24 points higher against lefties, and he’s seen the ball well off Smyly in the few times they have faced off.
Muncy is 2-for-6 against Smyly and has an average exit velocity of 95.3. That type of exit velocity means he’s due for some knocks, and we’re only going to need one out of him today.
Pick: Over 0.5 Hits (-160)
Framber Valdez Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+105)
|Tigers vs. Astros||Astros -200|
|First Pitch||4:05 p.m. ET|
I wrote up Framber Valdez’s strikeout prop last weekend against the Jays, as he was in a great spot against that lineup. He did shut them down, but unfortunately, the strikeouts did not rack up.
Today, he’s in an even better matchup, as he’ll face the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers’ bats have really been scuffling thus far, and there are a lot of swing and misses in their lineup. Detroit will enter seventh in the majors in strikeout rate.
Not only does the strikeout rate favor Valdez’s chances, but his repertoire against the make-up of the Tigers should work to his advantage, as well.
The Tigers are a relatively young team who has struggled with the breaking stuff this season. Detroit only has two guys — Robbie Grossman and Austin Meadows — that have a positive run value against curveballs this season.
As a whole, the Tigers only have two players with under a 30% strikeout rate against curveballs.
Valdez’s curveball is one of the best, as it has a 32% whiff rate and is in the top 15% of the league in spin rate.
Valdez will rack up the strikeouts today.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10