Sunday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Two Best Bets, Including Brewers vs. Nationals & Padres vs. Astros (May 30)
Will Newton/Getty Images. Pictured: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer.
Things should continue to heat up on the Major League Baseball landscape Sunday, with 16 games on the Memorial Day weekend slate.
Action Network baseball analysts Matthew Trebby and Kenny Ducey have uncovered two picks they like on the card, making them their best bets. Check out their top selections below from the matinee showdowns.
MLB Odds & Picks
Brewers vs. Nationals
Matthew Trebby: This one is pretty straightforward.
Standout Brandon Woodruff facing off against fellow ace Max Scherzer is one of the best pitching matchups you’ll see all season, which means the total is vulnerable.
Then, take into consideration seven of Woodruff’s 10 starts have gone under this 6.5 runs total. Neither the Milwaukee Brewers or Washington Nationals are exactly thriving at the plate either, so everything is lined up for these pitching stars to dominate.
Bottom line, don’t overthink this. The metrics on Woodruff and Scherzer indicate they’re in for Cy Young-caliber seasons. Woodruff is an under machine, plus he hasn’t faced Scherzer this season.
Live a little. Bet the under.
Padres vs. Astros
Kenny Ducey: I’ve had plenty of fun this season fading Blake Snell and I’m not going to stop now, even with his price getting a bit more reasonable as the weeks go on.
The lefty has done his damage in the strikeout department once again this season, punching out 33.3% of hitters, but that’s where the positive numbers end. His 4.50 ERA is backed by a 4.66 xERA, and his hard-hit rate has continued a steady decline into the 40% range now.
The Astros are the kings of contact this year, leading the way by a wide margin with a 81.6% contact rate. That’s the worst news imaginable for Snell, who has a .460 xwOBA on contact and relied on the strikeout to get him out of trouble this year. Houston’s offense has steadied once again over the last few games and should break out in a huge way here against Snell.
If you’re worried about the 21 runs San Diego has scored over the past two games, don’t be as the majority came against the Houston bullpen, which is downright horrendous at the moment. Let’s back Zack Greinke at home, who has been fantastic lately, and fade Snell at a very nice price.