MLB Strikeout Props To Bet Thursday: Fade Domingo Germán

With a small slate of games on Thursday, there aren't many props to choose from. However, there are two I like: an over and under tied to starting pitchers.

For this article, I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.

Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 16-10, +3.73 Units, +14.3% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).

MLB Player Props & Picks

Domingo Germán (NYY) — Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)

After missing the 2020 season due to a suspension, Domingo Germán has returned to the New York Yankees' starting rotation.

In the past, Germán has been a relatively average pitcher with a respectable strikeout rate of 10.08 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last full season in 2019, he could be relied upon to pitch for around 5 2/3 innings per start. This season, Germán has seen a decrease in usage, which is why I like his strikeout total under, particularly at plus money.

In two starts this season, Germán has pitched only seven innings. What is most worrisome for the Yankees is that he's given up four home runs and 12 hits. Even if he pitches a good game, I don't have faith that New York will keep him in the game long enough to get five or more strikeouts.

The Yankees' starting pitchers average fewer than 4 2/3 innings per outing, which is the third-fewest number of innings in the league. Germán might be decent at striking batters out, but he needs at least five innings to reach his strikeout total. Based on his lack of usage this season and the Yankees being cautious with their starters, the under is a good bet today at +120 odds.

Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120); up to -105.

• Action Labs Score: N/A
• Kevin Davis Score: 5

Aaron Sanchez (SF) — Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)

As a starting pitcher, Aaron Sanchez is awful and his strikeout rate is mediocre. Despite Sanchez’s lack of reliability despite his solid start to the 2021 season, I like his strikeout total going over the number because of how San Francisco uses its starting pitchers.

While many teams use their starters sparingly, the Giants rely on them more than most teams. That's why I am betting he has more than 4.5 strikeouts in this spot.

Action Labs projects Sanchez to have 4.5 strikeouts, while my model projects 4.87. While I don't know what variables the Action Labs model accounts for, I know mine heavily weighs projected innings.

Currently, the average San Francisco starter pitches for almost 5 2/3 innings per game, which is the third most in the league. My model projects Sanchez to pitch for 5 1/3 innings, which I believe is a reasonable estimate given the club's tendencies.

The Marlins' lineup averages 9.25 strikeouts per nine innings, which translates to a little more than a strikeout per inning. If Sanchez pitches his usual five to six innings, he should have around five strikeouts.

Pick: Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120); up to -105.

• Action Labs Score: 7
• Kevin Davis Score: 4