Today’s MLB Betting Prediction | Blue Jays vs Tigers Jays Odds, Expert Picks Tuesday April 11
Via Ed Zurga/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays bats against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium on April 4, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri.
- The Toronto Blue Jays are heavy home favorites on Tuesday night against the Detroit Tigers.
- The Tigers are looking to snap a four-game losing streak, while the Blue Jays are looking to win a third consecutive series.
- Doug Ziefel breaks down the matchup and shares his expert betting pick below.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Odds
-105 / -115
|Blue Jays Odds|
-105 / -115
The Detroit Tigers enter this series after a much-needed off day. They were pummeled by the Red Sox in their last series, which resulted in them being swept.
However, they are not getting a break in this matchup as they will begin a series with the Toronto Blue Jays. We’ve known how potent the Blue Jays lineup is, and they showed their offensive prowess during their weekend series against the Angels.
All signs point to them bringing their hot bats back home with them for the start of this series, and to boot, they’ll get to provide for their ace. So, what’s the best way to bet on this series opener between the Tigers and Blue Jays? Let’s dive in to find out.
Aside from a few good games in Houston, the Tigers lineup has been dormant. As a result, they stumble into this matchup ranking last in wOBA, second-worst in wRC+ and second-worst in Strikeout Rate.
Now that is certainly not an offense that you would want to back in almost any scenario, but their outlook gets even grimmer when you factor in who will be on the mound against them tonight. Detroit will be facing Alek Manoah.
Manoah had a breakout season in 2022, as he finished 16-7 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. However, after a season like that, many came into this season expecting regression, and his first start was a clear indication of that.
However, after a rough start to the season, Manoah bounced back strong in his last start against Kansas City. He fired seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit and striking out five batters.
The high number of walks through his first two starts is a tad alarming, but they may not factor into this matchup as the Tigers are one of the more undisciplined lineups in the majors. Just a few days ago, we saw Red Sox ace Chris Sale get right against this Tigers lineup, and we should see Manoah look equally as dominant tonight.
This Blue Jays lineup finished the 2022 season in the upper echelon in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. They’ve wasted no time picking up where they left off, as the bats have been hot through their first 10 games.
They have only scored fewer than four runs in two of their first 10 games. Oddsmakers favor their scoring output to continue, as the Blue Jays’ team total for tonight is set at 5.5.
The most significant factor in that high total is that they’ll be up against Matt Manning. Manning faired pretty well in his first outing of the season as he contained the Houston Astros.
However, to this point in his career, Manning has given up more than his fair share of loud contact. In 12 starts last season, Manning was in the bottom third of the majors in Average Exit Velocity Allowed and did not miss many bats at his Strikeout Rate and Whiff Rate also fell into that range.
Manning’s Flyball Rate could also pose a significant challenge heading into this outing. In 2022, he had a 35.3% Flyball Rate, which is 8% higher than the league average.
While he may be able to get away with flyballs in Comerica Park, a few of those balls could wind up in the seats at the Rogers Center.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
One look at the odds for this matchup, and it’s clear that this series opener is a big mismatch. However, the Blue Jays’ edges both on the mound and at the plate create value on another angle.
The Jays should be in command from the start of this one, as Manoah will set the tone and overpower this free-swinging Tigers lineup. In the bottom halves, we could see runs come in a hurry, as the top of Toronto’s order has been on fire of late. Look for Bo Bichette, Vlady Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman to give the Jays a sizable lead that they won’t relinquish.
Back the Blue Jays on the spread tonight.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-135)
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