Tuesday MLB Player Props | 5 PrizePicks Plays, Including Shohei Ohtani & Mike Trout (October 4)
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani.
Tuesday’s MLB slate features 18 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Shea Langeliers Under 0.5 Total Bases
Right-hander Michael Lorenzen will take the mound for the Los Angeles Angels. His last start came against Oakland, a game in which he surrendered zero earned runs while allowing just three hits and striking out eight.
Lorenzen’s metrics are strong this season, producing a .235 xBA and .367 xSLG. Going against a weak Oakland lineup, we should expect Lorenzen to close out the season strong.
The first Athletics hitter we are fading is Shea Langeliers. In his career against Lorenzen, Langeliers is 0-2 with two strikeouts.
His metrics are awful through the 38 games he has played, producing a .255 xwOBA and .199 xBA. His surface-level stats are not much better, especially against right-handed pitching.
Posting a .211/.440/.670 slash line against right-handers this season, we should expect a poor outing from the C/DH.
Stephen Vogt Under 0.5 Total Bases
The other A’s hitter we are fading in this game is Stephen Vogt. It has been a disastrous campaign for Vogt, especially recently.
Over his last 14 games played, he has just one hit. For the season, he possesses a .158 BA, .303 SLG, and .538 OPS.
We should expect his poor hitting to continue against Lorenzen, a guy whom Vogt is just 1-of-5 against in his career. His metrics this season are well-below average, posting a .279 xwOBA, .211 xBA, and .344 xSLG.
I do not see any angle where we should expect a good game from Vogt, and I expect this hitless trend to continue in this matchup.
Mike Trout Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
We are also backing a couple of Angels hitters (I am sure you can guess which two) as they are slated to go against left-hander Cole Irvin. The second half of the season has been a disaster for Irvin, who is 3-4 over his last nine starts with a 6.97 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.
His most recent of those starts came against the Angels, a game in which he allowed three runs on nine hits through four innings pitched. The first Angels hitter we are backing is Mike Trout, who is having yet another elite season.
Through 117 games, Trout has 39 homers with a .278 BA, .619 SLG, and .982 OPS. We should expect this tremendous year to continue against Irvin.
In his career against the left-hander, Trout is 3-4 with two doubles and a walk. The metrics behind those at-bats suggest regression should not be an issue as he produced a .450 xBA, 1.302 xSLG, and .725 xwOBA.
When facing left-handed pitching this year, Trout boasts a .306 BA, .631 SLG, and 1.043 OPS.
Shohei Ohtani Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7
We are also backing the other Angels superstar in this game, Shohei Ohtani. Like Trout, Ohtani has been an absolute weapon at the plate once again this season, posting a .275/.524/.882 slash line with 34 homers.
Through 25 career at-bats against Irvin, Ohtani boasts a .320 BA, .680 SLG, and .419 wOBA with two homers. Also like Trout, this matchup should not see any regression as Ohtani possesses a .322 xBA, .637 xSLG, and .406 xwOBA through those 25 at-bats.
Entering this game in great form, he is currently nursing an 18-game hit streak.
Willy Adames Hitter Fantasy Score Under 5
While he has been great all season, the right-hander enters this game in particularly dominant form. Over his last 10 starts, Gallen is 6-1 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.65 WHIP.
One of those outings was against Milwaukee, a game in which he allowed zero runs on two hits through seven dominant innings. In that game, Adames went 0-4 with a strikeout.
Entering this game in mediocre form, Adames has either pushed or gone under this total in each of his last eight games.