Tuesday MLB Props, PrizePicks Plays: Fading the Dodgers Presents Good Value in Minnesota (April 12)
Dustin Bradford/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Turner
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on today’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s slate in Major League Baseball.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
MLB PrizePicks Plays for Tuesday, April 12th
Andrew Heaney Pitcher Fantasy Score Under 18.5
The Los Angeles Dodgers hit the road to face the Minnesota Twins in this first matchup of a two-game set. Left-hander Andrew Heaney is set to take the mound for the Dodgers and is a good fade candidate in this matchup.
Heaney has just never been a good pitcher in his entire career as he possesses a lifetime 4.72 ERA and had an especially bad season last year with a 5.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He looked even worse in spring training this year as he went 0-2 with a 16.88 ERA over just 5 1/3 innings.
Minnesota has gotten off to a good start against left-handers this season as it ranks 12th in the league in AVG, eighth in OBP, seventh in SLG and seventh in OPS.
Chris Taylor Under 0.5 Runs + RBIs
I will also be fading some Dodgers batters as we are getting some value on their unders in this matchup. Taylor will be going against right-handed pitcher Chris Archer in this matchup, and is much worse against right-handers.
Last season against right-handers, Taylor’s numbers dropped to a mere .237 AVG, .400 SLG and .733 OPS. His numbers also saw a dramatic decrease when playing on the road last season as he possessed a lowly .232 AVG, .368 SLG and .694 OPS away from home.
Additionally, Taylor has never faced Archer before and there could be a learning curve through the first few at-bats in this game for the Dodgers outfielder.
Justin Turner Under 1.5 Hits + Walks
Another Dodgers hitter I am fading in this game is Justin Turner. Turner has gone under this figure in two of the first three games this season as he has gotten a slow start out of the gate.
Like Taylor, Turner’s numbers have taken a dip when playing away from home. Over the last two seasons, Turner’s numbers drop to a .276 AVG, .429 SLG and .796 OPS when playing on the road.
Turner has not looked very sharp to start the season as he possesses a mere .246 xBA, .326 xSLG, and .245 xwOBA.
Yusei Kikuchi Pitcher Fantasy Score Under 21.5
We have an AL East matchup as the Toronto Blue Jays travel to New York to take on the Yankees. Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi is slated to get the start for Toronto and is a good fade candidate in this matchup.
Kikuchi saw a dip in his numbers when playing on the road last season as his ERA dropped to 4.61 and his WHIP dropped to 1.41. Over his two starts against the Yankees last season, Kikuchi posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.
This Yankees lineup has great metrics in 62 career plate appearances against Kikuchi as they combine for a .355 xBA, .696 xSLG and .473 xwOBA.
Nestor Cortes Over 4 Strikeouts
Left-hander Nestor Cortes is projected to take the mound against the Blue Jays as he looks to build upon his breakout season last year. Cortes had at least four strikeouts in 12 of his 14 pitching appearances last year, including five in his lone start against the Blue Jays.
This is a good matchup for Cortes to keep racking up strikeouts as the Blue Jays have the fourth highest K% in the league against left-handers so far this season. In 38 career plate appearances against Cortes, Toronto possesses a shockingly high 36.8 K%.
Cortes pitches even better at home as his K/9 last season jumped up to 10.3 at Yankee Stadium.
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