Twins vs. Astros MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Over/Under (Wednesday, August 24)
Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Astros starting pitcher Framber Valdez.
- The Astros host the Twins in Wednesday's Major League Baseball action.
- Dylan Bundy takes the hill for Minnesota and will go up against Houston's Framber Valdez.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup below and delivers his two favorite picks with betting value.
Twins vs. Astros Odds
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Minnesota looks to avoid a fifth consecutive loss Wednesday when it faces Houston in Major League Baseball action.
However, the Twins — who are heavy underdogs — will try to do so in matchup that pits Dylan Bundy against Framber Valdez and the Astros.
Minnesota enters this tough matchup in a rut and sits three games back of the Guardians in the AL Central after once holding a notable lead. To make matters worse, Byron Buxton is back on the IL with a right hip strain.
Yet even without Buxton, this is a talented Twins lineup, so I imagine that offensively the last stretch will be somewhat of a low point for the group.
Minnesota is far from peaking at the right time. Over the last 30 days, the Twins have hit to a wRC+ of just 94 and struck out 22.4% of the time, en route to a below .500 record.
Altogether, Minnesota has hit to a 106 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Yet, I do believe despite the recent struggles the names in this lineup are providing a tougher than average opponent for Valdez.
Bundy has pitched to a career 4.70 ERA and his results in 2022 have been right around that, with a 4.60 ERA and 3.89 xERA overall. He has had a hard time enticing batters to swing at his breaking pitches, with batters swinging at just 38% of his breaking stuff over the last 140 innings.
That’s the lowest mark in the majors among pitchers with over 140 innings pitched and certainly might be part of the problem with batters owning a .424 xSLG versus his four-seamer, and a .459 xSLG against his changeup.
Life won’t get any easier for Bundy, who has already allowed a slug rate of .492 on the road. Houston has been the sixth-most productive team in the league against right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ rating of 106 overall.
The Astros have also hit to spectacular splits inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. Houston has hit to a 122 wRC at home, with a .337 woba.
Valdez has pitched to an xERA of 3.27 on the season, yet has seen some numbers regress throughout the month of August. He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 56%, and an xBA of .242 overall.
Bundy has pitched to considerably worse splits on the road and now enters a matchup against a formidable side in Houston, which could leave us with some areas to target in this game.
With one of the league’s best offensive units facing off against a middling starter, plus a currently undervalued Twins offense facing Valdez, I don’t see how this total is not sitting at eight even as opposed to 7.5 runs.
Both teams could be well situated for a strong offensive performance, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see either go well past its team total in this spot. At -115, I believe we have the price to make a play on the over 7.5 runs as the pick.
Since the start of last season Bundy has struck out just 15% of left-handed batters faced, which is certainly a concerning note entering a matchup with Yordan Alvarez. He has slugged .639 against right-handed pitching and this matchup seems to be a strong spot for that utter dominance to continue.
Alvarez is listed -115 on FanDuel to record more than 1.5 total bases and I would make a play on that down to -120 odds as well.
Picks: Total Over 7.5 Runs (-120) | Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases
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