Twins vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Regression in Store for Chris Archer? (Sunday, June 19)

Twins vs. Diamondbacks MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Regression in Store for Chris Archer? (Sunday, June 19) article feature image

Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Archer (Twins)

Twins vs. Diamondbacks Odds

Twins Odds-120
Diamondbacks Odds+102
Over/Under9 (-106/-114)
Time4:10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Minnesota will go with Chris Archer for the rubber match of this three-game interleague set on Sunday.

Archer's surprising early form after a poor 2021 campaign has been yet another story that has guided the Twins to their elite 38-29 record this season.

He will be challenged by Merrill Kelly, who has been solid himself, pitching to a 5-4 record with a 3.68 ERA in 71 innings this season.

Has Archer truly turned the corner, or could he be due for some poor numbers moving forward?

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Time for Archer's Regression?

Archer's 3.35 ERA across 48 innings this season surely looks surprising compared to his lowly marks in each of the previous three campaigns. However, it seems that we should expect heavy regression moving forward.

Archer's xERA sits way up at 5.13, which is much more on par with the form we have come to expect from him in the back years of his career.

All of Archer's underlying metrics indicate he's posted far worse play than his strong ERA suggests. He's ran very favorably into the right spots with regards to hard-hit balls not finding the grass.

Archer hasn't allowed a home run in his last six starts, yet he's been "hard hit" 44.2% of the time with a 10.2% barrel-rate. Eventually that's going to lead to more home runs and extra base hits than we have seen so far in his starts, which could be especially damaging considering Archer's 11% BB rate.

Minnesota's high-powered offense should set up as quite a challenge for Kelly, however, barring a wealth of absences.

We should expect Byron Buxton to take the field for this Sunday matchup after resting Saturday, while Luis Arraez's status remains to be seen after leaving yesterday's contest in the fifth due to an illness.

The Twins have been the third most productive lineup in the league against right-handed pitching this season, and have a 116 wRC+ in 1732 at-bats.

Minnesota has really clicked into gear offensively over the last month, as well, and have a 124 wRC+ as a team. The Twins have really hit the ball well in the opening two games of this series, with 24 hits from a ton of hard contact.

Is Kelly Better Than His Stats Indicate?

While Archer has overachieved with his surface level stats this season, Kelly has likely underachieved. The disparity between these two pitchers is the reason we are seeing this game priced closer than many might have expected.

Kelly has a 3.88 xERA across 71 innings this season, and has managed five quality starts over that time.

He's struggled more so as the season has ran along, however, and even excluding an absolute thrashing at the hands of the Dodgers on May 17, Kelly has a 4.33 ERA with a notably high 1.48 WHIP.

Kelly's struggles with his command have been quite clear of late, and he's walked 2.83 batters per contest over his last six outings.

He's walked right-handed batters in particular at the seventh-highest rate league wide this season, which could be concerning looking toward most of the top-bats in the Twins' order.

Twins-Diamondbacks Pick

Barring a ton of significant absences offensively from each side, I feel we have a clear spot here to back the over at 9.5.

Park Factors at Chase Field should be favorable to hitters in this spot, and for a pitcher (Archer) who is exhibiting a ton of reasons for significant regression, that should be bad news.

The Diamondbacks should be able to provide four-to-five runs toward our total here, and probably are the side holding a little more value altogether — as Kelly provides an edge over Archer.

However, Minnesota's red-hot lineup should be able to do damage again itself, and even should Arraez remain sidelined due to illness, it will be fielding a number of really potent bats who should provide a strong output to our total.

At -105, I believe we have enough value to make a play on Over 9, and I would back it up to -115.

Pick: Over 9 -105 (Play to -115)

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