Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Wednesday, Sept. 16)
Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito
- The Twins and White Sox reprise their season series on Wednesday night following Chicago's 6-2 victory on Tuesday.
- The White Sox have now won 22 of their last 27 games, but tonight's starting pitcher Lucas Giolito may raise some eyebrows.
- Michael Arinze breaks down odds for tonight's matchup and questions Giolito as the favorite given his 5.21 career ERA against Minnesota.
Twins vs. White Sox Odds
|Twins Odds||+135 [DraftKings]|
|White Sox Odds||-149 [MGM]|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Chicago White Sox tied their season series with the Minnesota Twins at four games apiece after picking up a 6-2-victory last night. The win also extended Chicago’s win streak to six games, and 22 of their last 27.
Tonight, the Twins will hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi to end Chicago’s run. Odorizzi has only made three starts this season due to injuries. He was forced to exit his last start on Aug. 21 after he was hit with a line drive to the ribs.
The White Sox will counter with Lucas Giolito. With each start, the Giolito hype train seems to pick up another passenger.
Bookmakers opened with him and the White Sox as -155 favorites. But that number has already been bet down. A closer look reveals that Giolito’s struggles against the Twins likely has something to do with the price move.
The coronavirus pandemic certainly changed how baseball would be played in 2020. One of those changes meant a more regional schedule aimed at player safety by limiting travel to and from multiple cities.
Coincidentally, that scheduling tweak led to Odorizzi facing the Kansas City Royals in three consecutive starts. Due to injuries, this will only be Odorizzi’s fourth start this year and first against an opponent that is not the Royals. This season, he’s 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
Odorizzi started the season on the IL with a back injury. In his earlier starts, he’s likely been on a pitch count or innings limit in an attempt to work his way back to full strength. His recent injury suggests that he’ll be on a similar restriction again tonight.
Perhaps a different opponent could do some good for Odorizzi. In 10 career starts, he’s 3-4 with a 3.20 ERA against Chicago. White Sox hitters are only hitting .239 against Odorizzi with a .292 wOBA and .340 SLG.
With 159 at-bats against Odorizzi, it’s fair to say we’ve got a pretty good sample size of how he’s performed against this Pale Hose lineup.
Chicago White Sox
Lucas Giolito is set to make his 11th start of the season. He’s 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He’s already faced the Twins twice this season and is 0-1 with a 9.35 ERA. In his career, he’s faced the Twins 12 times and is 4-6 with a 5.21 ERA.
In Giolito’s last start against Minnesota, the Twins took an early 4-0 lead. Giolito could only get through five innings in the matchup and was on the hook for the loss before the White Sox bailed him out and rallied to win the game.
While Minnesota batters are only hitting .237 against Giolito, they do have a .481 slugging percentage against him. In 160 at-bats, they’ve hit 11 home runs against the Chicago right-hander. And with winds blowing out to right field at almost 11 mph, they’ll be looking to improve on their tally this evening.
The more you look at Giolito’s performances against the Twins, the more difficult it is to justify the opening price of the White Sox in this matchup. This game is closer than the odds suggest and we’ve seen significant sharp action already siding with the Twins. There’s a reason both teams are knotted at four games apiece in the season series.
If we look at the bullpens, we’ll find that they’re relatively even as Chicago’s relievers have a 3.67 ERA while Minnesota relievers have a 3.76 ERA. Both bullpens also have an identical WAR of 2.5.
There’s certainly value on the Twins as an underdog in this spot and DraftKings has the best price on the board at +135.
The Bet: Twins ML +135 (Play down to +128) (half unit)